China’s Qinlao Spirit Fuels Global Trade Surplus Surge

China’s trade surplus surpassed the psychological barrier of $1 trillion for the first time in November 2025, igniting intense discussions in Western media about the implications of this economic milestone. Accusations of “beggar-thy-neighbor” policies have emerged, suggesting that China is using protectionist measures to shift economic burdens onto other nations. While the United States has often escaped such critiques, its actions, including tariffs and geopolitical maneuvers, have sometimes mirrored the very practices it condemns.

The term “beggar-thy-neighbor” denotes a specific set of economic policies where one country attempts to solve its own economic issues by imposing restrictions or tariffs on others. This strategy is typically attributed to nations experiencing high unemployment or economic downturns. Critics argue that China is disproportionately targeted by these allegations, while the U.S. engages in what some describe as more aggressive economic tactics, such as the ongoing trade tensions initiated during the Trump administration.

Despite external pressures to increase domestic consumption, China’s 15th Five Year Plan appears set to prioritize advanced manufacturing, with substantial investments in science and technology. This strategy is not merely a product of nationalism, as suggested by some commentators, but rather a continuation of a historical trend where China seeks to generate economic surpluses.

Historical Context of Surpluses

China’s civilization has long been characterized by a drive to create surpluses, tracing back thousands of years to the Xia dynasty, which organized labor to manage the Yellow River’s floods. This spirit of diligence, referred to as qinlao (勤劳), embodies industriousness, humility, and a dedication to hard work. It is this ethos that has led to significant achievements throughout Chinese history, from the construction of the Great Wall to modern infrastructure developments.

Today, China’s trade dynamics have shifted. Exports to the United States and Europe have stagnated or declined since 2022. Instead, the surge in China’s trade surplus is largely attributed to increasing exports to developing economies, including those in ASEAN, Latin America, Africa, Russia, Central Asia, and South Asia. In 2000, the West accounted for 60% of China’s exports; by 2024, that figure had dropped to 43%. As China’s exports to these regions continue to grow, the economic landscape is changing.

Global Economic Shifts and Future Trends

The BRICS nations, collectively growing in economic strength, now represent a significant portion of global trade. By 2024, they had become 50% larger than the G7 economies, highlighting a shift away from Western dominance in global trade. This transformation is also reflected in the declining share of the Western economies, which fell from 55% in 2020 to 37% in 2024.

China’s manufacturing sector has become increasingly competitive, offering capital goods and services at lower prices than Western counterparts. This pricing advantage is crucial for developing economies that require affordable infrastructure and industrial capacity to facilitate economic growth. The Belt and Road Initiative has further positioned China as a key player in providing financial and material support to these nations.

The recent record in Belt and Road loans, as reported by Australia’s Griffith University, indicates a robust increase in China’s global economic engagement. In 2024, the program set a record, with expectations for 2025 to exceed previous totals substantially.

In response to calls from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for increased consumption, China remains focused on maintaining its trade surpluses, emphasizing investments in domestic urbanization and infrastructure. While household consumption has grown, the country’s surpluses are increasingly used to bolster investments rather than being redirected to foreign markets.

The next phase of globalization appears to be driven by China’s qinlao spirit, which prioritizes productive surpluses that can support the economic development of the Global South. This evolution challenges traditional economic paradigms and suggests a future where developing economies benefit from China’s growth. As the dynamics of global trade continue to shift, the West may find itself on the sidelines, unable to compete with the emerging economic landscape shaped by China and its partners.