Saudi Arabia’s F-35 Deal Faces Hurdles Amid Chinese Spying Concerns

Saudi Arabia’s request to purchase 48 stealth F-35 jets is encountering significant challenges ahead of Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman’s upcoming visit to Washington for discussions with US President Donald Trump. While the deal promises to enhance the Saudi military capabilities, concerns regarding potential Chinese espionage have raised alarms within the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), complicating the approval process.

The Saudis’ interest in the F-35 jets stems from observing Israel’s successful use of the aircraft in various conflicts across the region, including operations in Syria, Yemen, and Iran. The significant losses suffered by Iran during these confrontations, particularly the destruction of its air defenses, have motivated Saudi Arabia to seek advanced military technology to bolster its defense posture.

Reports indicate that the Pentagon, including Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, is generally in favor of the sale. However, a classified DIA report has surfaced, warning that the transfer of F-35 technology could inadvertently benefit China. Details of this report remain undisclosed, but leaks suggest serious concerns over technology security.

Potential Political Ramifications

The implications of the DIA’s warning could be far-reaching. Following past tensions between the agency and the White House, notably the dismissal of Lt. Gen. Jeffrey Kruse after a leak regarding U.S. operations against Iranian nuclear sites, there is a palpable concern about the integrity of classified information within the Pentagon. The current head of the DIA, Major General Constantin E. Nicolet, may face scrutiny as Congress demands further briefings on the agency’s findings.

The proposed F-35 sale is estimated to be valued at around $10 billion, contributing to a broader commitment made last May in which Saudi Arabia agreed to invest $142 billion in U.S. defense contracts. This deal has sparked apprehension in Israel, the only current operator of F-35s in the Middle East, which perceives the potential sale as a threat to its military advantage in the region.

Israel’s concerns are compounded by the possibility of similar arms sales to Turkey, another significant regional player. The U.S. legal obligation to uphold Israel’s Qualitative Military Edge (QME), established by Congress in 2008, further complicates the dynamics of this deal. Any arms sales to neighboring countries require careful assessment to ensure they do not undermine Israel’s security.

Regional Security and Future Developments

As the negotiations unfold, there is speculation about how to address Israeli concerns effectively. Reports suggest that Israel may seek preferential access to the U.S. Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program, which includes the development of the F-47 fighter jet, expected to commence flights in 2028.

In a strategic pivot, President Trump might encourage Saudi Arabia to normalize relations with Israel and consider participation in the Abraham Accords. While the current Saudi administration is unlikely to fully embrace this approach, alternative political arrangements may be proposed to benefit both nations.

Saudi Arabia’s defense ties with China further complicate the scenario. The kingdom has previously acquired ballistic missiles from China and is currently receiving assistance in developing its defense capabilities, including drone technology. Reports indicate that China has supplied Saudi Arabia with advanced drone systems like the Wing Loong II, which has applications beyond domestic use.

As Congress reviews the implications of the F-35 sale, it must weigh the potential risks of China’s influence within Saudi defense industries. Should the deal collapse due to political reasons, Saudi Arabia might explore alternatives, including procuring stealth technology from China or Russia, which could further alter regional power dynamics.

The final decision on the F-35 sale will require navigating a complex web of international relations, security concerns, and legislative scrutiny. The outcome remains uncertain, but it is clear that the stakes are high for all parties involved.