Taliban’s Stubbornness Undermines Stability and Regional Ties

The collapse of recent peace talks in Istanbul highlights a troubling reality: the Afghan Taliban’s foreign policy continues to reflect the insularity and obstinacy that have historically isolated Afghanistan. Despite pledging to bring stability following decades of conflict, the Taliban’s unwillingness to address cross-border militancy undermines its governance and regional relationships.

Following the failed negotiations, Pakistan’s Information Minister Attaullah Tarar criticized the Afghan delegation’s approach. He stated, “The Afghan side kept deviating from the core issue,” indicating that Islamabad sought concrete commitments to address cross-border militant activities. Instead, the Afghan representatives sidestepped the topic entirely, suggesting either a deliberate denial or a troubling lack of control over militant groups operating from Afghan territory.

The Istanbul dialogue, facilitated by Qatar and Turkey, was intended as an opportunity for both nations to mend relations after a series of skirmishes that resulted in dozens of casualties on both sides. By not committing to a verifiable plan to curb cross-border attacks, the Taliban effectively squandered a chance to foster regional cooperation.

The Taliban’s foreign relations strategy has been characterized by a narrow nationalism that often masquerades as ideological purity. Instead of forging connections with neighboring countries, the Taliban treats diplomacy as an extension of its militant doctrine, viewing compromise as a sign of weakness. This approach not only jeopardizes Afghanistan’s survival but also alienates vital allies.

Pakistan has long supported Afghanistan, hosting millions of refugees and offering trade routes and humanitarian assistance. Even after the Taliban regained power in 2021, Pakistan advocated for international engagement with Kabul. However, the Taliban has allowed its territory to become a launch point for the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), a group responsible for countless attacks that have killed thousands in Pakistan. The TTP seeks to establish an Islamic emirate and impose a strict religious code in Pakistan, further straining relations.

The Taliban’s inability to distance itself from such groups not only breaches Pakistan’s trust but also poses a direct threat to Afghanistan’s own security and legitimacy. The Taliban’s actions are scrutinized by regional powers eager to assess Kabul’s capability as a responsible sovereign government.

China, which has cautiously invested in Afghanistan’s infrastructure and mining sectors, expresses unease regarding the Taliban’s inability to manage extremist factions that endanger Chinese nationals and the Belt and Road projects in Pakistan. The East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM), an ethnic Uighur militant group, poses a significant threat to China’s security interests. In a statement from 2023, China’s foreign ministry described ETIM as a “severe threat,” urging the Taliban to exercise “greater determination” against the militant group.

The Taliban’s foreign policy choices are not occurring in a vacuum. The Kremlin, while engaging in quiet diplomacy with the Taliban through Moscow-format talks, perceives Afghanistan as a potential buffer against Western influence. However, Russia’s patience is waning as the spread of militancy from Afghanistan disrupts its security strategy. A government unable to control its territory or prevent cross-border terrorism cannot be relied upon, even by nations within an anti-Western alliance.

The Taliban’s defiance not only distances it from Pakistan but also threatens to diminish Afghanistan’s already fragile credibility since the regime took power in 2021. The global perception remains that Afghanistan is not acting like a responsible state but rather as a movement still entrenched in its insurgent past.

For years, Pakistan has faced the consequences of violence spilling over from its chaotic border with Afghanistan. The Istanbul talks represented yet another attempt to establish common ground, reflecting Pakistan’s commitment to stabilizing its western frontier through dialogue rather than conflict. Yet, Islamabad’s patience has limits. Recent airstrikes targeting militant sanctuaries in Afghan territory were not acts of war but a stark reminder that unchecked aggression cannot be tolerated indefinitely. Even then, Pakistan signaled a preference for diplomacy, a rare show of restraint in a volatile region.

The Taliban had a critical opportunity during the Istanbul talks to reshape Afghanistan’s image as a responsible actor in regional security. Instead, it opted for ideological rigidity, alienating not only Pakistan but also major powers like China and Russia, which had previously supported its inclusion in regional discussions. Such inflexibility carries significant risks, including renewed border conflicts, further isolation of Afghanistan, and the collapse of prospects for economic cooperation in South Asia—a region that desperately requires stability to attract investment and trade.

With militant violence in Pakistan reaching a nine-year high and Afghanistan’s economy in freefall, the stakes are too high for either country to ignore. The path to peace requires Kabul to acknowledge a fundamental truth: sovereignty comes with responsibility. The Afghan Taliban cannot demand international recognition while enabling cross-border terrorism. They cannot invoke brotherhood with Pakistan while disregarding the suffering inflicted by Afghan-based militants on Pakistani soil.

For Pakistan, the challenge lies in balancing firmness with strategic foresight. Military interventions alone will not ensure security; they must be complemented by sustained diplomatic efforts and a regional consensus. But for that to occur, Afghanistan must first demonstrate its capability and willingness to act as a responsible state, rather than a revolutionary movement trapped in its past.

In Istanbul, the Taliban had a pivotal chance to demonstrate maturity; it chose obstinacy instead. The repercussions of this decision will not just affect diplomatic relations but will also impact the lives of ordinary Afghans and Pakistanis who endure the consequences of an avoidable conflict. As patience wanes, even the Taliban’s last remaining allies in Beijing and Moscow may begin to lose faith.