Sabah Election Results: GRS Secures Power Amid Shifts in Politics

The recent election in Sabah has ushered in a new state government, with the incumbent coalition, Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS), emerging victorious. Official results from the polls on November 30, 2023, indicate that Hajiji Noor will serve a second term as the state’s chief minister. However, the GRS coalition secured only 29 seats out of 73 in the legislative assembly, raising questions about coalition dynamics and implications for national politics, particularly for Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim and his Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition, which won just one of the 22 seats contested.

As Sabahans reflect on the election results, the political landscape appears to be shifting. The GRS victory indicates a preference for local parties over national coalitions, a sentiment echoed by analysts. James Chin, a professor at the University of Tasmania, noted that Anwar must reassess federal-state relationships, particularly concerning Sabah and Sarawak’s rights under the Malaysia Agreement 1963 (MA63). The results suggest that voters are increasingly prioritizing local representation and autonomy.

Election Insights: Shifts and Trends

Several noteworthy trends emerged from the election. The Democratic Action Party (DAP), a component of PH, suffered significant losses, failing to retain any of its previously held constituencies. Arvin Tajari, a senior lecturer at Universiti Teknologi MARA (UiTM) Sabah, indicated that a shift in support from Chinese voters towards Warisan was influenced by perceptions of corruption and integrity issues at the federal level. DAP’s performance contrasts sharply with its success in the previous election, where it won six out of seven contested seats.

Similarly, Anwar’s Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) saw a decline, winning only one seat out of 12 contested. Analysts like Vilashini Somiah from Universiti Malaya suggest that PH misjudged the political climate in Sabah, underestimating the growing sentiment favoring local parties.

On the winning side, GRS and Warisan emerged as the frontrunners, with GRS securing 29 of the 55 seats it contested, while Warisan claimed 25 seats. Despite a narrow vote margin, the dynamics of money politics in rural areas played a significant role, according to Chin. Warisan’s leader, Shafie Apdal, expressed concerns over the extensive use of government machinery and vote-buying during the campaign.

Future Coalition Dynamics

The formation of the next state government is now a focal point of speculation. Analysts predict that GRS and PH will form the “core” of the new government, combining their seats with those of the United Progressive Kinabalu Organisation (UPKO) and several independents. This coalition could yield a slim majority in the assembly, but the need for a stable two-thirds majority will likely prompt GRS to seek additional partnerships.

Chin emphasized the potential for GRS to engage with other parties to ensure stability in the volatile political climate. However, the possibility of collaboration with Barisan Nasional (BN) remains uncertain due to historical animosities within Sabah’s political landscape.

The election results have also highlighted the evolving political narrative in Sabah, suggesting a growing demand for local governance. The electorate appears inclined towards parties that promise to advocate for Sabah’s rights and entitlements under MA63. This shift could result in a further decline in support for national coalitions, particularly as sentiments in Sabah and Sarawak strengthen.

Implications for Anwar Ibrahim

The election has posed significant challenges for Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, marking a setback for his coalition. The results reflect a demand for change, as articulated by the electorate. Anwar acknowledged the clear message from Sabah voters, emphasizing the need for reform and greater attention to local issues.

The appointment of Anwar’s daughter, Nurul Izzah, as the election director is perceived as a misstep, impacting her political credibility. In a joint statement, she accepted collective responsibility for the disappointing results.

While the return of GRS may indicate a willingness to engage with Anwar’s government, analysts caution that voters do not desire a state government closely aligned with political forces from West Malaysia. Moving forward, a more nuanced approach may be required from Anwar, focusing on tangible development and governance rather than political narratives.

The results have also raised questions about the future of national coalitions in the upcoming elections. Analysts suggest that if lessons from Sabah are overlooked, the political dynamics in other states could shift in unpredictable ways as Malaysia approaches its next general election, scheduled for February 2028.

In summary, the Sabah election results underscore a significant transformation in the political landscape, highlighting the electorate’s desire for local representation and accountability. The implications for both state and national politics will continue to unfold, shaping the future of governance in Malaysia.