China Boosts Military Spending in Pacific, Taiwan Estimates $21 Billion

China’s military spending on exercises in the Taiwan Strait, East and South China Sea, and Western Pacific reached an estimated US$21 billion last year, reflecting an increase of nearly 4 percent compared to 2023. This figure comes from estimates produced by Taiwan’s government, which tracked Chinese military activities, including aircraft and naval operations, and calculated associated costs such as fuel and maintenance.

The internal research conducted by Taiwan’s armed forces has been reviewed by Reuters and corroborated by four officials from Taiwan, providing rare insights into China’s defense spending as it expands its military presence in the region. This increased spending contributes to growing concerns among regional governments and Washington, as China continues to assert its military capabilities.

Details of Military Activities

In 2023, China’s official defense budget was reported at 1.67 trillion yuan (approximately US$233.47 billion), although many diplomats believe this figure is under-reported. The lack of detailed spending breakdowns from Beijing complicates external assessments of military expenditure. According to officials familiar with the report, the methodology used by Taiwan to compile its estimates is reasonable, even though it involves some degree of estimation.

The Taiwanese military’s report outlined its findings based on surveillance and intelligence regarding Chinese military activities across various bodies of water, including the Bohai Sea, the Taiwan Strait, and the South China Sea. By tallying up the number of Chinese naval and air missions, the report estimated that these activities cost around 152 billion yuan (approximately US$21 billion) when including maintenance, repairs, and salaries. This expenditure constitutes about 9 percent of China’s reported military spending for 2024, up from 7 percent in 2023.

“China’s ongoing military expansion and grey-zone provocations are severely undermining peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region,” stated Taiwan’s defense ministry in response to the findings. The ministry did not specifically address the spending estimates but emphasized the broader implications of China’s military posture.

Increased Activity in the Region

According to the report, Chinese military aircraft, including J-10 fighter jets and H-6 bombers, conducted nearly 12,000 flights in the region during 2024, accumulating about 37,000 hours in the air. This represents a significant 30 percent increase from the previous year. Meanwhile, the Chinese navy logged over 86,000 sailing missions, including those involving aircraft carriers and destroyers, amounting to more than 2 million hours at sea, a 20 percent increase compared to 2023.

Approximately 34 percent of these naval operations occurred in the contested South China Sea, while 28 percent took place in the East China Sea, which borders Japan and South Korea. Nearly 14 percent of the naval journeys were in the sensitive Taiwan Strait. One official briefed on the research noted, “They are trying to normalize their military power projection and intimidation around the first island chain,” which includes an area from Japan through Taiwan, the Philippines, and down to Borneo.

China has also extended its naval operations beyond its immediate coastline, participating in anti-piracy patrols off the coast of Somalia and exhibiting increased naval movements around Alaska and the northern Pacific, according to reports from the United States.

The Taiwanese research aims to assist policymakers in understanding how China allocates its military resources and to assess the pace of its military expansion. The estimated spending of 152 billion yuan represents approximately a quarter of Taiwan’s own defense budget for 2024.

As tensions continue to rise in the region, the implications of these military expenditures and activities could pose significant challenges to stability in the Indo-Pacific.