Japan Considers Missile Export to Philippines, Testing China Ties

Japan is contemplating the export of an air-defense missile system to the Philippines. This potential move could escalate tensions with China, which is already embroiled in a diplomatic dispute with Japan. According to a report by Kyodo News on November 30, 2023, Tokyo has engaged in informal discussions with Manila regarding the potential export of the Type 03 Medium-Range Surface-to-Air Missile system.

The Type 03 missile system, developed in Japan, boasts a range of approximately 50 kilometers and is capable of intercepting both aircraft and cruise missiles. This system is also slated for deployment on Yonaguni, an island located about 110 kilometers off the eastern coast of Taiwan. A comprehensive study of the export to the Philippines is expected to initiate once Japan relaxes its current restrictions on defense equipment transfers, a revision anticipated in the coming year.

Japan’s existing guidelines permit defense equipment exports to security partners only for five non-combat purposes: rescue, transport, warning, surveillance, and minesweeping. Despite the lack of official confirmation from either government regarding the discussions, the Philippines has shown interest in procuring the Type 03 system to bolster its military capabilities amid increasing tensions with China in the contested South China Sea.

The situation has become particularly fraught, as confrontations between Chinese and Philippine vessels have intensified in recent months. The proposed missile export is likely to draw criticism from Beijing, which has expressed concern over Japan’s military activities in the region. The diplomatic rift has been exacerbated by comments from Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, who recently stated that an emergency in Taiwan could pose a threat to Japan’s survival. This remark has been met with a swift backlash from China, which views self-governing Taiwan as an integral part of its territory.

In a phone call on November 24, 2023, Chinese President Xi Jinping reiterated that Taiwan’s “return to China” at the conclusion of World War II is a fundamental aspect of Beijing’s vision for global order. The ongoing territorial disputes over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands in the East China Sea further strain relations between Japan and China, which have recently experienced new maritime confrontations.

China has labeled Japan’s plans to deploy the Type 03 missile system as “extremely dangerous,” framing it as a deliberate effort to create regional instability and provoke military conflict. In response to these concerns, Japan’s Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi emphasized the necessity of the missile system for national security, asserting that its establishment would reduce the likelihood of an armed attack against Japan.

As discussions continue, the implications of this potential missile export will be closely monitored by both regional and global observers. The outcome will likely influence the dynamics of security in the Asia-Pacific region and the broader geopolitical landscape, particularly in relation to Japan’s evolving defense posture and its interactions with China.