Sabah Election Results Shift Political Landscape in Malaysia

KOTA KINABALU: The recent Sabah state elections have resulted in significant changes to the political landscape, with the incumbent Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) coalition securing the most seats. Official results from the elections held on March 30, 2024 show that GRS won 29 seats in the 73-seat legislative assembly, allowing its chairman Hajiji Noor to be sworn in as chief minister for a second term. However, the coalition fell short of a simple majority, raising important questions about the formation of the new state government and the implications for Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim and his Pakatan Harapan (PH) coalition.

The election results are particularly concerning for PH, which managed to secure only a single seat out of the 22 it contested. Analysts highlight that this outcome reflects a growing sentiment in Sabah favoring locally based parties over national coalitions. James Chin, a professor at the University of Tasmania, emphasized that Anwar must reassess federal-state relationships, particularly in Sabah and Sarawak.

Key Takeaways from the Sabah Election

The election results reveal a multifaceted shift in Sabah’s political dynamics.

1. **Winners and Losers**: The election witnessed a significant decline for the Democratic Action Party (DAP), a key component of PH, which lost all eight constituencies it previously held to Warisan. Arvin Tajari, a senior lecturer at Universiti Teknologi MARA, attributed this shift to a perceived lack of integrity at the federal level, impacting DAP’s appeal among Chinese voters. Conversely, Warisan, led by Shafie Apdal, increased its representation from 23 seats in 2020 to 25 this year, despite GRS’s overall victory.

2. **Coalition Composition**: With GRS and PH holding a combined total of 30 seats, they are expected to form the core of the new government. Awang Azman, a professor at Universiti Malaya, suggested that the United Progressive Kinabalu Organisation (UPKO), which won three seats, would likely align with this coalition. The five independent candidates who won may also join for stability, as a slim majority is critical in Sabah’s volatile political environment.

3. **Emerging Issues**: The election results highlighted a strong local sentiment, with voters increasingly favoring parties that they believe will advocate for Sabah’s rights under the Malaysia Agreement 1963. This agreement recognizes Sabah and Sarawak as equal partners with West Malaysia, a sentiment that appears to resonate more with voters than national party affiliations.

4. **Implications for Anwar**: For Prime Minister Anwar, the outcome represents a significant setback. His daughter, Nurul Izzah, faced criticism for her role as election director, and the results may impact her political credibility. Anwar acknowledged the electorate’s demand for change in a social media post, emphasizing the need for a fresh approach to governance in Sabah.

5. **Looking Ahead**: The Sabah election serves as a crucial indicator of political trends that may affect the upcoming general elections in Malaysia, which must be held by February 2028. Analysts predict that Anwar’s reliance on Borneo parties will be essential for securing a parliamentary majority. A declining support base in East Malaysia could empower local coalitions like GRS and Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS), making them key players in future negotiations regarding autonomy and development funding.

The outcome of the Sabah elections underscores a pivotal moment in Malaysia’s political landscape, where local sentiments are increasingly shaping electoral outcomes. As negotiations for coalition governance unfold, the focus will remain on how these developments influence the broader national political environment.