Sanae Takaichi Faces Coalition Challenges Ahead of Premiership

Sanae Takaichi is poised to become Japan’s first female prime minister, but she is already confronting significant opposition from her coalition partner, Komeito. This tension, which emerged after Takaichi’s selection as leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), poses a potential risk to her leadership as coalition discussions continue.

On October 7, 2023, Takaichi met with Tetsuo Saito, the leader of Komeito, to address concerns regarding her hardline conservative positions. While Takaichi is widely expected to secure parliamentary approval later this month, the absence of a ruling coalition majority complicates the process. Political analysts suggest that if the coalition fractures, Takaichi may need to negotiate alliances with other parties, such as the fiscally-expansionist Democratic Party for the People (DPP). The uncertainty surrounding these developments is already affecting investor confidence in Japan, one of the world’s most indebted nations.

“Everybody does think that Takaichi probably has the upper hand,” said Kei Okamura, managing director at Neuberger Berman in Tokyo. “It’s just a matter of how big of a hand that is.” The political instability has contributed to the yen reaching an eight-month low against the US dollar, with some strategists attributing this decline to the ongoing coalition negotiations and the possibility of an alliance with the DPP, which advocates for tax cuts and relaxed monetary policies. “This is a problem for those hoping for continued fiscal prudence,” warned Jordan Rochester, a strategist at Mizuho.

A vote in parliament that was initially scheduled for around October 15, 2023, is likely to be delayed as discussions between the LDP and Komeito progress. Additionally, US President Donald Trump is anticipated to visit Japan at the end of the month, which adds another layer of complexity to Takaichi’s situation.

Komeito, which has been allied with the LDP since 1999, is known for its socially liberal stance and often tempers the party’s more aggressive policies. The coalition partner has voiced concerns over Takaichi’s rhetoric regarding foreign nationals and her visits to the controversial Yasakuni Shrine, viewed by neighboring countries as a symbol of Japan’s militaristic past. Komeito is also urging the LDP to respond more decisively to a fundraising scandal that has shaken the party.

Following the meeting, Saito confirmed that while they discussed these pressing issues for approximately 90 minutes, no concrete resolutions were achieved. Further negotiations are expected in the coming days, according to a Komeito official.

Meanwhile, the main opposition group, the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), is advocating for a united front among opposition parties to propose an alternative candidate for prime minister. Local media reported that Yuichiro Tamaki, the charismatic leader of the DPP, could emerge as a strong contender, as noted by CDP’s secretary general, Jun Azumi.

In the parliamentary process, opposition parties can nominate candidates, and a simple majority is required to secure approval during the initial vote. If no candidate achieves this majority, a runoff will occur between the top two candidates. However, analysts express skepticism about the likelihood of opposition parties reaching consensus on a single candidate to challenge Takaichi.

“Takaichi is almost nailed on,” said Paul Nadeau, a political science associate professor at Temple University in Tokyo. “I don’t see the opposition parties all agreeing on one single candidate.” As Takaichi navigates the complexities of coalition politics, her ability to unify support within her party and among allies will be crucial for her anticipated premiership.