Taiwan Looks to Strengthen Ties with Japan Under Takaichi Leadership

Taiwanese academics are urging the government to pursue significant advancements in arms trade and military technology cooperation with Japan following the election of Sanae Takaichi as the leader of Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party on September 29, 2023. Analysts believe that Takaichi’s leadership could pave the way for stronger ties between Taipei and Tokyo, particularly in defense matters.

Takaichi is seen as a proponent of the late Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe‘s security strategy and Indo-Pacific policy, with Taiwan’s security positioned as a priority. Chen Shih-min, an associate professor of political science at National Taiwan University, noted that Takaichi has previously stated that an attack on Taiwan would pose a threat to Japan’s survival. This view aligns with Abe’s assertion that “a Taiwan contingency is a Japan contingency.” If Takaichi ascends to the role of Prime Minister, it is anticipated that she will advocate for Taiwan’s defense capabilities in collaboration with the United States.

Takaichi has expressed a desire to modify Article 9 of Japan’s constitution, which currently restricts military action. Chen highlighted that this move could enhance Japan’s Self-Defense Forces and decrease dependence on US military support. He emphasized the need for Taiwan to deepen military cooperation with Japan, particularly in arms sales and technology transfer, noting that Japan’s advanced submarine technology could significantly bolster Taiwan’s defense capabilities.

While Japan’s “Three Principles on Transfer of Defense Equipment and Technology” impose limitations on defense exports, analysts suggest that Takaichi could adopt a more flexible approach, potentially increasing cooperation between the two nations. Chen remarked that Takaichi’s willingness to promote military exchanges could facilitate Taiwan’s development of its defense industry.

Unlike her predecessors, Fumio Kishida and Shigeru Ishiba, who were cautious about China’s reactions to military cooperation with Taiwan, Takaichi is expected to prioritize Taiwan’s security over concerns about Beijing. Chen described this moment as a critical opportunity for Taiwan to strengthen its security collaboration with Takaichi’s future cabinet.

In the view of Wang Hung-jen, executive director of the Institute for National Policy Research, Takaichi stands to be the most Taiwan-friendly Japanese leader since World War II. He anticipates that her leadership will facilitate major breakthroughs in both political and economic cooperation between Taiwan and Japan. Wang highlighted Takaichi’s previous comments regarding Taiwan as an important ally and her commitment to maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait.

Takaichi has visited Taiwan multiple times, notably meeting with Taiwanese President William Lai in April 2023, where she expressed support for an economic partnership agreement between the nations. Wang urged Taiwan to capitalize on this opportunity to advance trade agreements, focusing on tariff reductions, personnel exchanges, and double taxation concerns.

Looking ahead, Takaichi is expected to advocate for Taiwan’s meaningful inclusion in international organizations, including the International Civil Aviation Organization and the World Health Organization. Analysts suggest that she will take a pragmatic approach to enhancing military cooperation with Taipei, emphasizing supply chain security and defense resilience, which includes food and energy security as well as dual-use industries like artificial intelligence and semiconductors.

Wang reiterated that Takaichi’s commitment to establishing a “defense network” among friendly nations could lead to enhanced regional security cooperation involving Taiwan, the United States, Japan, the Philippines, Australia, and other allies. As Taiwan navigates this pivotal moment, the potential for strengthened ties with Japan under Takaichi’s leadership presents a significant opportunity for improving its defense posture and international standing.