Takaichi’s Leadership Could Transform Taiwan-Japan Relations

Taiwanese analysts are optimistic about the potential for increased cooperation between Taiwan and Japan following the election of Sanae Takaichi as the leader of Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party on September 29, 2023. Takaichi’s clear pro-Taiwan stance signals possible breakthroughs in military and economic relations, according to experts.

Political science associate professor Chen Shih-min from National Taiwan University emphasized the importance of Takaichi following the security policies of the late Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. He noted that Takaichi is likely to prioritize Taiwan’s security as part of Japan’s broader Indo-Pacific strategy. During a party debate last year, she remarked that a Chinese attack on Taiwan would pose a threat to Japan’s survival, aligning with Abe’s belief that “a Taiwan contingency is a Japan contingency.” This perspective could open the door for Japan to exercise collective self-defense, potentially collaborating with the United States to bolster Taiwan’s defense capabilities.

Takaichi’s commitment to Taiwan’s security is evident in her ambitions to revise Article 9 of the Japanese constitution. This article currently limits Japan’s military capabilities, but Takaichi aims to strengthen the Japanese Self-Defense Forces and reduce reliance on US military support. Chen advocates for Taiwan to pursue deeper military cooperation with Japan, particularly in the areas of arms sales and technology transfer. He pointed out that Japan is recognized for its advanced submarine technology, highlighting the potential value of retired Soryu-class submarines to Taiwan’s defense infrastructure.

While Japan’s “Three Principles on Transfer of Defense Equipment and Technology” restrict weapons exports, Chen believes that Takaichi may adopt a more flexible interpretation, which could facilitate increased military exchanges and technology sharing between the two nations. Unlike her predecessors Fumio Kishida and Shigeru Ishiba, who expressed caution regarding China’s reactions, Takaichi is expected to prioritize what she perceives as beneficial for Taiwan’s security.

The director of the Institute for National Policy Research, Wang Hung-jen, described this moment as historically significant, urging Taiwan’s government to capitalize on Takaichi’s pro-Taiwan sentiments. He noted that Takaichi’s clear stance on Taiwan distinguishes her from other candidates. In a recent article, she referred to Taiwan as an important ally of Japan, underscoring that peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait are paramount concerns for Japan.

Takaichi’s relationship with Taiwan has been proactive; she has visited the island multiple times and met with Taiwanese President William Lai in April 2023. During their meeting, she expressed support for an economic partnership agreement, which would enhance trade relations and address tariff reductions, personnel exchanges, and double taxation issues.

Looking ahead, Takaichi is expected to advocate for Taiwan’s meaningful inclusion in international organizations, such as the International Civil Aviation Organization and the World Health Organization. Wang anticipates that her pragmatic approach will focus on enhancing supply chain security and defense resilience, encompassing food and energy security, as well as dual-use industries, including artificial intelligence and semiconductors.

Takaichi’s vision for a “defense network” among friendly nations suggests a strategy aimed at strengthening regional security links between Taiwan, Japan, the United States, the Philippines, Australia, and other partners. This comprehensive approach could significantly enhance Taiwan’s defense capabilities, according to analysts. As the situation evolves, the Taiwanese government is urged to engage proactively with Takaichi’s administration to deepen security cooperation.