US Must Adapt as Global South Gains Economic Influence

For decades, Western policymakers operated under the assumption that the international order would remain predominantly unipolar. However, this perspective is being challenged as the Global South steadily increases its economic and diplomatic influence. The shift is not marked by abrupt changes but rather through the gradual accumulation of power and assertiveness from nations in the Global South, raising critical questions about how the United States and its allies will adapt to this evolving landscape.

BRICS and the Quest for Multipolarity

The recent expansion of BRICS, which now includes Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and new members such as Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates, signals a significant challenge to Western dominance. This coalition reflects a growing dissatisfaction with an international system perceived as favouring Western interests while sidelining the majority of the global population. Critics often dismiss BRICS as a disjointed group with varying priorities; while this holds some truth, it overlooks the bloc’s role as a platform for articulating an alternative vision.

This vision promotes the idea that developing nations should not be mere rule-takers but active participants in shaping global governance. The establishment of the New Development Bank and initiatives to create alternative payment systems outside of the dollar-dominated SWIFT network illustrate strategic efforts to build redundancy in global financial systems. The impact of these developments became clear when Russia was cut off from SWIFT following its invasion of Ukraine, prompting nations in the Global South to reassess their own vulnerabilities.

The Economic Shift and Emerging Opportunities

Over the past two decades, the economic center of gravity has shifted towards the Global South. By purchasing power parity, emerging and developing economies now contribute approximately 60% of global GDP. Notably, China has surpassed the United States to become the largest trading partner for over 120 countries. This transition is driven not merely by low-cost labor; countries like India, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Mexico are advancing in manufacturing, digital economies, and innovation, moving beyond the role of resource extractors to become creative designers and engineers of their own products.

Demographic trends further support this shift. While many Western nations and China grapple with aging populations, regions like Africa and South Asia boast youthful, growing demographics. By 2050, Africa is projected to account for over a quarter of the global population, presenting both economic potential and geopolitical significance. Additionally, the transition to renewable energy places resource-rich Southern nations in advantageous positions, as they control vital resources such as lithium and cobalt, essential for technologies like batteries and solar panels.

The growing assertiveness of the Global South raises important questions about the post-World War II institutional framework. The permanent membership of the United Nations Security Council still reflects the power dynamics of 1945 rather than contemporary realities. Despite reforms, the International Monetary Fund and World Bank remain heavily influenced by Western voting shares, while the language of the “international community” often excludes Southern nations.

Instead of outright hostility toward the West, emerging economies are pursuing pragmatic strategies. They question the necessity of dependence on institutions that offer limited influence and are increasingly forming alternative frameworks. Initiatives such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank exemplify this trend, providing platforms for development and security discussions without Western involvement.

The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has highlighted this perspective. While Western nations unified against Russia, many in the Global South opted for neutrality, maintaining relationships with both sides. This pragmatic approach demonstrates a desire to prioritize national interests over ideological alignment.

As the technological landscape evolves, innovation is no longer confined to traditional Western hubs. Chinese companies, for example, are making significant strides in areas such as mobile payments and artificial intelligence. India is also emerging as a leader in digital infrastructure, with initiatives like the Aadhaar identification system and the Unified Payments Interface gaining international attention. The success of African fintech innovations, like M-Pesa in Kenya, illustrates how local solutions can effectively address regional challenges.

Despite the positive momentum, the rise of the Global South is not without challenges. Many countries still face obstacles such as corruption, political instability, and inadequate infrastructure. Additionally, internal divisions complicate the notion of a unified Global South. For instance, India and China are engaged in competitive relations, while Middle Eastern nations pursue divergent agendas.

Implications for US Policy

For American policymakers, the ascent of the Global South necessitates a strategic recalibration. First, the United States must abandon the notion of restoring uncontested global supremacy. The era of a unipolar world is over, and the focus should shift to effective navigation within a multipolar landscape.

Second, the US should recognize that many Southern nations are not choosing between America and China; rather, they prefer not to choose at all. Forcing binary decisions risks alienating these nations, so a more nuanced approach that respects their interests in maintaining diverse partnerships is essential.

Genuine reform within Western institutions is also critical. Expanding the UN Security Council, enhancing developing nations’ voting shares in the IMF and World Bank, and allowing Southern voices to shape international standards will diminish the allure of alternative institutions. Superficial changes will not suffice; meaningful power-sharing is necessary.

Furthermore, the United States must provide competitive economic engagement that offers attractive alternatives to initiatives like China’s Belt and Road Initiative. This requires not just criticism of other nations’ terms but presenting feasible options that align with the needs of developing countries.

Finally, selective multilateralism and coalition-building around specific issues may yield more effective results than demanding comprehensive alignment. Flexible partnerships on topics like climate cooperation, pandemic preparedness, and maritime security can foster collaboration without requiring ideological conformity.

The emergence of the Global South does not signal an inevitable decline for the West or the obsolescence of liberal democratic values. Rather, it presents a challenge to uphold these values amidst competing models, emphasizing the need for persuasion over dictation. The international system is evolving through numerous incremental decisions made by nations pursuing their interests in a more decentralized power dynamic.

Resistance to this change is counterproductive. The question remains for the US and its allies: will they facilitate a constructive transition or resist it until compelled to accept new realities? History suggests that resistance is costly and ultimately futile. Adapting to this new global environment requires humility, flexibility, and a recognition that the post-1945 order is transforming into something different.

For the Global South, the task is to translate potential into sustainable influence by building effective institutions, addressing development challenges, and demonstrating that alternatives to Western models can achieve prosperity and stability. The future will hinge on whether existing powers choose to support a peaceful rebalancing or cling to outdated paradigms.