Mearsheimer Addresses South Korea’s Future at World Knowledge Forum

The World Knowledge Forum took place on October 10, 2025, in Seoul, featuring prominent political scientist John Mearsheimer as a key speaker. Mearsheimer participated in a panel titled “The Future of the Global Geoeconomic Order,” where he shared his insights on the current state and future of international relations. Renowned for his realist approach, Mearsheimer has a track record of accurately predicting geopolitical trends, including the consequences of NATO’s eastward expansion and the dynamics of US-China relations.

During the forum, Mearsheimer outlined the strategic priorities of the United States, emphasizing its focus on three key regions: Europe, the Middle East, and East Asia. He noted that although Europe was once the primary concern, the current rivalry with China places East Asia at the forefront. Mearsheimer remarked, “The fact that we’re enmeshed in the Middle East and Europe means that the last thing we want is a crisis in East Asia,” referring to the ongoing conflicts that could divert US attention.

Mearsheimer’s perspective on Korea was notably rare, as he has primarily focused on other regions in his previous discussions. He suggested that South Korea should hope for continued US engagement in the Middle East and Europe to avoid potential conflicts in East Asia. He stated, “I, as an American, have a deep-seated interest in greatly reducing our presence in the Middle East, getting out of the Ukraine conflict so we can concentrate on containing China.” This perspective implies that peace on the Korean Peninsula may depend less on diplomatic efforts and more on the United States being preoccupied elsewhere.

Despite labeling the current situation as one of “optimism,” Mearsheimer’s analysis raises concerns for South Korea. He suggested that the calm in East Asia is contingent on US distractions, rather than a result of earned stability. This notion presents a precarious situation, as threats from North Korea and China continue to loom. Mearsheimer’s assertion that “the absence of war does not equal security” highlights the underlying tensions that persist even in periods of apparent peace.

The historical context of South Korea’s alliance with the United States cannot be overlooked. As noted by the late American commentator Charlie Kirk shortly before his death, the relationship is built on shared sacrifices and mutual trust. South Korea has consistently stood by the US in times of need, proving itself as a reliable partner rather than a passive beneficiary of American protection.

Mearsheimer’s realism compels a critical examination of the strategic landscape. He posits that nations act primarily out of self-interest, suggesting South Korea must prepare for potential shifts in US focus. The lesson is clear: rather than relying on the hope that the US remains engaged abroad, South Korea should bolster its own defenses and prepare for any strategic void that might arise.

While Mearsheimer describes this period as optimistic, he cautions that such optimism should not replace strategic planning. The US-South Korea alliance is crucial but must be underpinned by equal investment in deterrence and trust from both parties. As global dynamics continue to evolve, South Korea must assert its own agency, modernize its defense capabilities, and diversify its partnerships.

In Mearsheimer’s realist framework, peace is not a given; it is something that must be actively defended. As South Korea navigates this complex geopolitical landscape, it must remain vigilant and proactive, understanding that stability requires ongoing commitment and preparation. The challenges ahead will demand a nuanced approach that balances alliance loyalty with the need for greater autonomy.