Rival Camps Clash as Thailand Prepares for Critical PM Vote

BANGKOK: Thailand’s political landscape is poised for a dramatic shift as rival factions vie for control following the court’s dismissal of Paetongtarn Shinawatra from her post as prime minister. On September 5, 2023, parliament is set to vote on a new premier, igniting intense negotiations and strategic alliances among competing parties.

The ruling Pheu Thai party faced a significant setback on August 29 when the court ruled against Paetongtarn, citing an ethics violation. This ruling triggered a challenge from Bhumjaithai, a smaller party that withdrew from her coalition in June. The party’s leader, Anutin Charnvirakul, has launched a concerted effort to establish a new government, successfully aligning with the liberal opposition People’s Party. This coalition now boasts a combined strength of 146 seats in parliament, with an additional 143 votes pledged by the People’s Party, which will not join Anutin’s government but supports his candidacy for prime minister.

In response, Pheu Thai is grappling with a loss of political leverage, particularly as its founder, Thaksin Shinawatra, faces uncertainty regarding his influence. Thaksin, who has a history of successful political maneuvering, unexpectedly departed Thailand for Dubai shortly after the ruling, raising questions about his role in the current crisis. Pheu Thai’s strategy has shifted from seeking support to desperate measures aimed at obstructing Anutin’s path to leadership. This includes a petition to the king for the dissolution of parliament, which was ultimately rejected.

In a bid to counteract Anutin’s growing momentum, Pheu Thai has announced its own candidate, Chaikasem Nitisiri, a former justice minister and attorney general. If Chaikasem secures the position, he has pledged to call for a new election immediately. This tactic aims to weaken Anutin’s coalition by offering a potential pathway to a swift electoral process that could benefit the People’s Party, which was previously blocked from power in 2023.

To secure the prime ministership, a candidate must receive endorsement from at least 50 lawmakers, with a majority of 247 votes required from the lower house’s 492 members. Should neither Anutin nor Chaikasem receive sufficient votes, the house will reconvene, necessitating further rounds of nominations and voting.

Anutin currently appears to hold the advantage due to his early moves and the prevailing skepticism surrounding Thaksin. However, the political climate in Thailand is notoriously unpredictable, characterized by shifting alliances and historical betrayals. Pheu Thai has a history of renegotiating agreements and forming alliances with former adversaries, including military factions that previously overthrew Shinawatra-led governments in 2006 and 2014.

If the vote results in a deadlock, it could lead to further political impasse and necessitate new rounds of coalition-building. Other potential candidates include acting Energy Minister Pirapan Salirathavibhaga, former deputy prime minister Jurin Laksanawisit, and Prayut Chan-o-cha, the retired general who led the 2014 coup and served as premier for nine years. Although Prayut currently holds a position as a royal adviser, his military ties and standing among the royalist establishment could position him as a stabilizing figure in times of crisis.

As the political situation continues to evolve, the outcome of the pending vote remains uncertain. The complex dynamics of Thai politics underscore the intricacies involved in the nation’s governance, where alliances are often fluid, and the potential for unexpected collaborations looms large.