Prabowo Aims for Global Influence Amid Tariff Challenges

Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto made his first appearance at the BRICS Summit in Brazil this month, aiming to enhance Indonesia’s presence on the global stage. However, his efforts were overshadowed by an announcement from Donald Trump, the President of the United States, who declared a 32 percent tariff on Indonesian goods entering the U.S. This tariff, initially revealed in April, was followed by an additional 10 percent on all BRICS member nations, including Indonesia, just a day later.

Despite the setback, Mr. Prabowo managed to negotiate the tariff down to 19 percent after a phone call with Mr. Trump, describing the outcome as a result of “tough negotiation.” This incident has raised concerns about the broader implications for Indonesia’s foreign policy ambitions, which are a key focus of Prabowo’s presidency since he assumed office nine months ago.

Shifting Foreign Policy Direction

Indonesia’s membership in BRICS, which commenced in January, signifies a move towards a more assertive foreign policy. This represents a notable shift from the approach of former President Joko Widodo, who predominantly focused on domestic issues. Ahead of the summit, the Indonesian foreign ministry expressed that Prabowo’s goal is to position Indonesia as a “bridge-builder” amid increasing global uncertainties.

Rather than centering Indonesia’s foreign policy around ASEAN, Prabowo is pursuing larger platforms, where Indonesia can emerge as a significant player. Just as Widodo aimed to enhance Indonesia’s physical infrastructure, Prabowo seeks to establish the country as a geopolitical heavyweight. His attendance at the St Petersburg International Economic Forum in June, alongside Russian President Vladimir Putin, underscored this ambition. During the forum, Prabowo highlighted that Indonesia’s accession to BRICS was one of the fastest, and he justified his choice to attend this forum over the G7 Summit in Canada by emphasizing his prior commitment.

Geopolitical Ambitions and Realism

Prabowo’s engagement with international politics is not new. As Defence Minister from 2019 to 2024, he faced criticism for proposing a controversial peace plan for the Russia-Ukraine conflict at the Shangri-La Dialogue in 2023. His plan suggested creating a demilitarized zone and a United Nations-sponsored referendum in the disputed territories. This proposal was met with rejection from Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry, highlighting Prabowo’s realist outlook, which prioritizes hard power over international laws.

This realist approach continued during his presidency. In May, during a press conference with French President Emmanuel Macron, Prabowo stated, “We must acknowledge and guarantee Israel’s rights as a sovereign country.” He added that Indonesia would be ready to recognize Israel once it acknowledges Palestine. This marks a significant shift in Indonesia’s traditional stance, which has historically withheld diplomatic recognition of Israel until an independent Palestinian state is established.

In April, Prabowo further demonstrated his commitment to the Palestinian cause by offering to temporarily shelter 1,000 Palestinians affected by the conflict in Gaza. If realized, this initiative would represent Indonesia’s most concrete commitment to supporting Palestine to date.

Prabowo’s overarching vision is to usher in an era where Indonesia “will rise as a great country.” This ambition resonates with the ideals of Indonesia’s first president, Sukarno, who sought to create a third force among non-aligned countries during the post-war era. Balancing Indonesia’s role as a middle-ranking power amidst global rivalries presents a real challenge for Prabowo.

As he navigates these complexities, it becomes increasingly clear that he intends to utilize all available influence to elevate Indonesia’s global prominence and, in doing so, potentially secure a lasting legacy that surpasses those of his predecessors.