Japanese Opposition Parties Unite to Form New Centrist Political Force

In a significant political development, Japan’s main opposition parties, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP) and Komeito, announced their intention to unite and form a new political party. This decision, revealed by party leaders on January 15, 2024, aims to present a cohesive front against the ruling coalition, which they perceive as increasingly right-leaning.

This announcement follows Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi‘s indication to ruling party executives that she plans to dissolve parliament next week and call a snap election. Sources suggest that the election could be scheduled for February 8, capitalizing on her current high approval rating. According to CDP leader Yoshihiko Noda, the Takaichi administration has favored policies that lean towards the right, creating an opportunity for the centrist camp to assert its influence in national politics.

Komeito recently severed its 26-year alliance with Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) due to dissatisfaction with the party’s handling of a political funding scandal. Following this, the LDP formed a coalition with the Japan Innovation Party, known as Ishin, which has facilitated Takaichi’s rise as Japan’s first female prime minister.

In the newly formed party, initial leadership will be shared between Noda and Tetsuo Saito, Komeito’s chief. Lawmakers from both parties will transition to the yet-to-be-named party, and Noda has expressed a desire to attract lawmakers from other parties as well.

With a total of 465 seats in the lower house, the LDP and Ishin currently hold a combined 233 seats, securing a simple majority. In contrast, the CDP and Komeito together control 172 seats. A recent poll by public broadcaster NHK indicated that Takaichi enjoys support from 62 percent of voters. A decisive victory in the upcoming election would bolster her position within the LDP and lessen her dependence on smaller parties for legislative support.

Despite potentially gaining a lower house majority, Takaichi would still face challenges governing due to a minority in the upper house, which she cannot dissolve. The upper house elections occur every three years, with the next scheduled for 2028. Saito mentioned that lawmakers from both the CDP and Komeito in the upper house would also aim to join the new party ahead of their upcoming elections.

The formation of this new political entity reflects a strategic effort to consolidate centrist forces in Japan and could significantly influence the political landscape leading into the next election cycle.