Vietnam’s Communist Party Shifts Power Dynamics Under To Lam

As the Vietnamese Communist Party concluded its 14th National Congress, the unanimous re-election of General To Lam as General Secretary captured the attention of international observers. Alongside this development, Lam’s ambitious target of 10% GDP growth dominated headlines, presenting a façade of continuity and stability within the Party. However, a deeper analysis reveals a significant shift in the political landscape, marked by a surprising directive in the Congress Resolution to propose amendments to the Party Charter.

This directive stands in stark contrast to earlier statements from senior officials who assured both the public and Party members that no amendments to the Charter would take place. Such a change in narrative raises questions about the integrity of the political framework established by the late General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong, known for his commitment to a strict adherence to existing rules.

Unification of Power Dynamics

Under Trong’s leadership, the Party Charter served as the foundation of political legitimacy, with his “blazing furnace” anti-corruption campaign relying heavily on the enforcement of established regulations. The recent Congress appears to have upended this logic. The urgency of amending the Charter following the selection of top officials suggests that the new leadership under Lam is willing to rewrite the rules to fit its emerging power structure.

Immediately after his re-election, Lam presided over an international press conference, a role typically reserved for the head of state. Furthermore, the absence of both the sitting Prime Minister and State President from the new Central Committee indicates a dismantling of the checks and balances that characterized the previous “four pillars” system. This consolidation creates a framework for Lam to emerge as a singular power center.

The forthcoming amendments to the Charter are expected to formalize these shifts, potentially merging the roles of General Secretary and President or granting the Party chief direct executive powers over government operations.

Shifting Alliances in the Central Committee

The composition of the new Central Committee reflects a complex interplay of power dynamics, moving away from the traditional consensus model. Lam, along with the Ministry of Public Security, now holds substantial control over key positions, including that of the General Secretary and Inspection Commission. This new order positions them as the primary defenders of the Party against both internal and external threats.

While the numbers may suggest military dominance—with 33 members from the armed forces—the reality is more nuanced. The military has been pacified with seats and economic privileges, and pragmatic factions within the military are increasingly aligning with Lam’s group, which also includes powerful capital interests. Notably, Nguyen Thanh Nghi, the son of former Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung, has joined the Politburo, indicating a potential grand bargain forged with Lam.

The ambitious 10% GDP growth target poses a challenge for Lam, who must now rely on the expertise and networks of the “interest faction,” a remnant of the Dung era, to achieve such economic goals. The existing Party Charter, designed for collective leadership and ideological rigor, may no longer suffice in this evolving landscape, where synergies between police and technocrats become essential.

Lam’s apparent consolidation of power brings inherent risks. By dismantling the “four pillars” and potentially merging key titles, he risks losing the safety net that the previous collective leadership model provided. Any government failures will now be attributed directly to him, as the responsibility for economic and diplomatic challenges will rest solely on his shoulders.

The push to amend the Charter signals an underlying insecurity within the current consensus, which appears to be held together by temporary alignments rather than shared ideological foundations. Vietnam is transitioning into a new era where rules are becoming fluid, and the definition of stability is being actively redefined.

For foreign investors and diplomats, the critical question remains: Can a system rooted in security centralism embrace the openness necessary for a thriving economy? The anticipated amendments to the Party Charter will be the first significant test of this emerging contradiction.

Voices like Nguyen Ngoc Nhu Quynh, also known as Mother Mushroom, a Vietnamese writer and human rights commentator now based in Texas, are closely monitoring these developments. As the founder of WEHEAR, she emphasizes the need for increased transparency and accountability in Southeast Asian politics, highlighting the implications of these political shifts on human rights and governance in Vietnam.