Vietnam’s Political Landscape Shifts Under To Lam’s Leadership

The Vietnamese Communist Party has entered a new phase under the leadership of General To Lam, following his unanimous re-election as general secretary during the party’s 14th National Congress. Alongside a bold target of 10% GDP growth, this development raises questions about the future structure of governance in Vietnam. While the initial narrative suggests continuity, a closer look reveals significant changes in the party’s political framework.

At the heart of this transition is an unexpected directive from the Congress Resolution, which calls for amendments to the Party Charter “immediately after” the Congress. This move contradicts previous assurances from senior officials who stated that no changes would be made to the Charter. In the complex realm of Vietnamese politics, where procedural consistency often holds as much weight as personnel decisions, such a shift indicates that the established political system, known as the “four pillars,” is being reshaped under Lam’s leadership.

Changing Political Dynamics

Under the previous general secretary, Nguyen Phu Trong, the Party Charter served as a fundamental source of political legitimacy. Trong’s anti-corruption campaign relied heavily on the strict enforcement of existing regulations, ensuring stability through adherence to the Charter. The recent Congress, however, appears to invert this principle. The push to amend the Charter after the selection of top leaders suggests that Lam’s administration is rewriting the rules to fit a new power structure.

A notable indication of this shift came immediately after Lam’s re-election, when he took charge of an international press conference—an event typically reserved for the head of state. Additionally, the restructuring of the Central Committee, which excluded both the sitting prime minister and the state president, effectively erodes the checks and balances that had been characteristic of the “four pillars” system. This paves the way for Lam to establish a more centralized power base.

The forthcoming amendments to the Party Charter are likely to formalize these changes, potentially merging the roles of general secretary and president or granting the Party chief increased executive authority.

Power and Economic Aspirations

As the Party Charter undergoes revision, questions arise regarding the beneficiaries of these changes. The newly formed Central Committee reflects a shift away from the previous consensus model of governance, introducing a complex triangle of power led by Lam and the Ministry of Public Security. This body now commands key positions, including the general secretary and the standing secretariat, positioning itself as the protective force of the Party against various threats.

The composition of the Central Committee is telling; of its 200 members, 33 hail from the armed forces, with 26 military representatives and 7 from the police. While this appears to signify military dominance, it is more nuanced. Under Lam’s rule, the military has been appeased with influential positions and economic privileges. Importantly, factions within the military are increasingly aligning with capital groups that support Lam, indicating a pragmatic shift in loyalties.

A key figure in this evolving landscape is Nguyen Thanh Nghi, the son of former Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung, who has recently entered the Politburo after years of being sidelined. This move highlights a potential alignment with Lam, as economic performance becomes paramount. The ambitious 10% GDP growth target poses a substantial challenge for Lam, who will need the expertise and connections of the business-oriented “interest faction” to achieve such goals.

The existing Party Charter, which emphasizes collective leadership and ideological purity, seems ill-equipped to support this new model of economic development, where security forces and technocrats increasingly collaborate. The anticipated amendments may aim to streamline this partnership, facilitating faster decision-making while shielding technocrats from the repercussions of the anti-corruption campaign that initially propelled Lam to power.

The consolidation of power under Lam raises concerns about entering a “peak power trap.” In the prior collective leadership framework, failures could be attributed to the system or specific ministries. By dismantling the “four pillars” and potentially merging key roles, Lam risks shouldering the blame for any missteps—be they economic downturns, power outages, or diplomatic tensions.

The urgency surrounding the Charter amendments suggests an underlying insecurity. The current political consensus appears fragile, held together not by a shared ideology but by a temporary alignment of interests between security and economic sectors. As Vietnam transitions into this new era, the flexibility of its rules and the evolving definition of stability will be closely monitored by foreign investors and diplomats alike. The rewritten Party Charter may serve as the first real test of whether a system rooted in security centralism can accommodate the openness necessary for a thriving economy.

Nguyen Ngoc Nhu Quynh, known as Mother Mushroom, is a prominent Vietnamese writer and human rights advocate based in Texas. She is the founder of WEHEAR, an initiative dedicated to promoting human rights and political transparency in Southeast Asia.