US Navy Faces Challenges in Responding to Iran Crisis

Protests in Iran have escalated dramatically, with the Islamic Republic responding with severe repression. The situation poses significant regional and geopolitical implications as the United States and Israel prepare various contingency plans for potential military action against the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Basij militia. US President Donald Trump recently expressed support for the Iranian protesters, stating that help is “on the way” and that he had canceled meetings with Iranian officials until the violence ceases.

Trump emphasized that the US is “locked and loaded” and ready to intervene if lethal force is used against protesters. Despite these declarations, a decisive military response from the US has been slow, largely due to a shortage of naval assets in the Middle East. Many active ships are either deployed in the Indo-Pacific or undergoing maintenance, complicating the US’s ability to respond swiftly to multiple crises.

The protests, which began on December 28, 2023, were sparked by economic deterioration and poor resource management in Iran. The regime, already under strain from US-led sanctions and a collapsing currency, faces mounting pressure as citizens take to the streets. As protests intensified, the IRGC and Basij militia resorted to violent suppression, including the use of live ammunition and internet blackouts to conceal their actions. Reports indicate that the death toll among protesters may range from 3,000 to 12,000, according to Iran International.

In response to the crisis, the US has condemned the Iranian government’s actions and is considering a range of military options, including potential intervention. Trump has been presented with various strike options and tools for hybrid warfare aimed at pressuring Iran’s leadership. Israel may also participate in any military actions undertaken by the US.

US Naval Capacity and Strategic Gaps

The limited response from the US can largely be attributed to significant gaps in naval capacity within the US Central Command (CENTCOM) area of responsibility. Following two years of ongoing conflicts that required sustained naval deployments, a considerable portion of the US Navy’s active fleet is currently grounded for maintenance. Almost 25% of the fleet is stationed in the Caribbean, while key assets like the USS Iwo Jima Amphibious Ready Group are also deployed in the region.

As of January 13, 2024, only three aircraft carriers are operational: the USS Gerald R. Ford, USS Abraham Lincoln, and USS George Washington, with the latter two engaged in operations within the Indo-Pacific. The redeployment of the USS Gerald R. Ford from the Eastern Mediterranean to the Caribbean highlights the growing gaps in US force projection capabilities. In the event of military action against Iran, extensive naval missile-defense systems, such as the Aegis systems, would be critical to counter potential Iranian ballistic missile strikes.

The USS Lincoln is reported to be moving from the South China Sea toward the Middle East as of January 14, 2024. However, this transition is expected to take at least a week, during which the situation in Iran may further deteriorate.

Challenges in Naval Production

The current limitations in US military readiness are closely linked to the decline in naval production. Analysts have pointed to falling production rates as a fundamental issue. For example, the Littoral Combat Ship (LCS) program was originally intended to produce 52 ships, but only 35 are currently operational due to bureaucratic constraints.

To address these challenges, experts advocate for a revival of the domestic shipbuilding industry, which would enhance the US Navy’s capabilities. The Sasakawa Peace Foundation highlighted the importance of the SHIPS Act for bolstering competitiveness and workforce development in maritime industries. Additionally, the Ensuring Naval Readiness Act is set to create significant industrial partnerships with countries like Finland, Japan, and South Korea, aimed at improving US naval production capacity.

The neglect of naval readiness not only hampers the US’s ability to respond to global crises but also jeopardizes its national security. As the military faces increased demands, it is essential for the Pentagon and Congress to prioritize naval revival to ensure America is prepared for future challenges, particularly in light of the ongoing unrest in Iran.