Trump Orders Pentagon to Consider Resuming Nuclear Testing

The recent announcement by President Donald Trump directing the Pentagon to explore the resumption of nuclear testing has stirred significant reactions globally, particularly from Russia. In an interview with Norah O’Donnell on CBS News’ *60 Minutes* on November 2, 2023, Trump asserted the necessity of testing to ensure the reliability of the United States’ nuclear arsenal. He highlighted the ongoing missile tests by other nations, including North Korea and Russia, suggesting that the U.S. should not remain the sole nation refraining from such activities.

Trump’s remarks came amidst claims that Russia had announced intentions to conduct nuclear tests, although there is no verified evidence indicating that Russia, China, or North Korea are actively testing nuclear warheads. Russia has been expanding its nuclear capabilities, including recent advancements such as a nuclear-powered cruise missile. Nevertheless, these developments do not equate to nuclear warhead tests, which are strictly defined under international treaties.

On November 5, 2023, the U.S. successfully tested a Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile with a dummy warhead. The Kremlin was informed prior to the test, highlighting the ongoing communication between the two nuclear powers. Both the U.S. and Russia are signatories to the 1963 Partial Test Ban Treaty, which prohibits atmospheric, outer space, and underwater nuclear tests but allows for underground testing.

The context surrounding nuclear testing has evolved significantly since the signing of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) in 1996, which aimed to prohibit all nuclear test explosions. While the U.S. signed the CTBT, it was never ratified by the Senate in 1999. Russia ratified the treaty but rescinded its ratification in 2023, leading to uncertainty regarding its commitment to the agreement.

In the aftermath of Trump’s announcement, Vladimir Putin instructed Russian authorities to evaluate the feasibility of resuming nuclear tests. Satellite imagery has indicated increased activity at Russia’s Novaya Zemlya test site, suggesting preparations for potential testing.

China, while a signatory to the CTBT, has not ratified it, and monitoring systems have not detected any full nuclear detonations by China since 1996. However, satellite imagery has revealed increased activity at China’s Lop Nor test site, where new constructions suggest preparations for subcritical experiments. These experiments involve using chemical explosives to compress fissile materials without triggering a nuclear explosion.

The U.S. is actively modernizing its nuclear arsenal, developing new warheads, and addressing concerns regarding the reliability of existing stockpiles. The Department of Energy has announced plans to renew the production of plutonium pits, essential for new nuclear warheads. Despite estimates suggesting that the service life of a nuclear pit could extend up to 100 years, the U.S. recognizes the necessity of starting production to support new weapons such as the W87-1 for the Sentinel missile program.

While existing treaties limit the yield of nuclear tests, the U.S. may consider partial testing if it decides to move forward. This approach would likely involve a combination of subcritical physical testing and advanced simulation methods. The resumption of nuclear testing, even if limited, could prompt similar actions from other nuclear states, particularly Russia and China.

In summary, President Trump’s directive signals a potential shift in U.S. nuclear policy, with implications for international relations and the strategic landscape. As the world watches, the next steps taken by the U.S. and other nuclear powers will be crucial in determining the future of nuclear testing and global security.