Trump Gains Leverage in Venezuela Ahead of China Summit

The recent apprehension of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro has significantly strengthened the position of US President Donald Trump as he approaches a pivotal summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping in April. This development may enable Trump to resolve the lingering crisis in Venezuela, which has raised global concerns for over a decade. With control over an estimated $10-20 billion in Chinese credit to Venezuela, Trump now wields considerable influence that could affect global oil prices and bolster military confidence in Asia.

The implications of this geopolitical shift extend beyond the Americas. As protests intensify in Iran, the stability of the Iranian regime appears increasingly tenuous. While the Ayatollah’s regime is likely to resist external pressures, the growing dissent could lead to further complications. The prospect of another US intervention looms, especially after the previous military actions targeting Iran’s nuclear capabilities. Should the US engage with a more moderate faction in Tehran, similar to the current dialogue with the Venezuelan government, it could reshape the geopolitical landscape.

Iran’s strategic importance to China, particularly regarding oil supply and the Belt and Road Initiative, adds another layer of complexity. Historically, there have been discussions about a potential trade-off between support for Iran and Taiwan. In 1999, Professor Zhang Xiaodong proposed a hypothetical exchange that reflected the intricate ties between Beijing and Tehran. Although current conditions have rendered such negotiations impractical, the essence of these connections remains vital.

If China loses Iran after Venezuela, its geopolitical isolation could deepen, diminishing its leverage against the United States. Should Beijing decide to intervene in support of Tehran, it risks becoming enmeshed in a conflict that could rival the scale of the ongoing situation in Ukraine.

As the summit approaches, speculation about a potential US takeover of Greenland—a territory of Denmark and a member of NATO—has emerged, raising alarms about the stability of international alliances. A unilateral move by the US could fracture its relationships with allies, undermining the notion that American protection is assured. Recent statements from US officials suggest a misunderstanding of the consequences such actions could yield, both for the United States and the global order.

Historically, the United States has achieved its goals through measured use of force, rather than overt displays of power. As articulated in the foundational work on power by Niklas Luhmann, effective power is not merely a characteristic of nations but a communicative medium that reduces uncertainty and facilitates decision-making. Overexerting power can diminish its effectiveness, while judicious use can enhance it.

The lessons from the current geopolitical landscape are evident for both the US and China. If Trump mishandles the situation regarding Greenland, the gains made in Venezuela and potential leverage over Iran could evaporate. In this context, it is crucial for the US to seek solutions that reinforce alliances rather than jeopardizing them.

The article reflects the views originally published by the Appian Institute and emphasizes the need for a collaborative approach moving forward. The mantra should be to find agreeable solutions that strengthen international partnerships, fostering stability in a rapidly changing world.