PLA Activity Around Taiwan Doubles, Urging Defense Budget Review

The activity of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) around Taiwan has significantly increased, with Vice Minister of National Defense Hsu Szu-chien announcing that the number of vessels and aircraft deployed has doubled compared to the previous two years. This statement comes on the heels of a legislative decision against reviewing a crucial defense budget aimed at countering the growing military threat from China.

Hsu expressed his disappointment after the opposition-controlled legislature voted not to review the government’s proposed general budget for the upcoming year, which includes a special defense spending allocation of NT$1.25 trillion (US$39.71 billion). The Vice Minister stated that the budget was necessary to enhance the nation’s defense capabilities and fulfill its responsibility toward maintaining regional stability.

The rejection of the special budget review impedes funding essential for developing asymmetric warfare capabilities and supports programs aimed at bolstering national defense resilience. Hsu emphasized the importance of lawmakers from all political parties coming together to prioritize defense spending, stating, “The ministry is open to discussion and oversight regarding the bill.”

In a related context, a Pentagon report highlighted that China is on track to develop the military capacity needed for a successful invasion of Taiwan by 2027. Hsu noted that the document indicated China would have the ability to target all US bases within the first island chain by that time. This evolving capability poses new challenges for Taiwan’s defense strategy, as it would allow the PLA to potentially strike US forces and allies throughout the Indo-Pacific region.

The Pentagon report, which is the first issued under the second administration of US President Donald Trump, portrays a Chinese military that is both sophisticated and increasingly resilient. The assessment points to a growing partnership between China and Russia, although underscored by a prevailing “mutual distrust” that complicates their cooperation.

China’s military advancements include a “large and growing arsenal” of nuclear, maritime, and cyber capabilities, which the report claims could directly threaten American security interests. Although the report noted that China’s nuclear stockpile was in the low 600s as of last year, it also highlighted a slower production rate compared to previous years, without specifying the reasons behind this trend.

The report also outlines the PLA’s goals as it aims to meet its 2027 targets, which fall under President Xi Jinping’s military modernization strategy. These goals include achieving “strategic decisive victory” over Taiwan and establishing a “strategic counterbalance” against the US, along with a focus on deterrence against other regional nations.

The Pentagon’s assessment concludes that China expects to be able to engage in and win a conflict over Taiwan by the end of 2027. With options ranging from an amphibious invasion to a maritime blockade, the PLA is refining its military strategies to compel Taiwan towards unification through force if necessary.

Hsu’s comments and the report from the Pentagon serve as stark reminders of the urgent need for Taiwan to enhance its defensive posture in light of these significant developments.