Myanmar Launches Controversial Elections Amid Ongoing Conflict

On December 28, 2025, Myanmar will hold its first general elections since the military coup on February 1, 2021. The State Administration Council, which is controlled by the military, officially lifted the state of emergency on July 31, 2023. This led to the formation of a caretaker cabinet, led by Prime Minister Nyo Saw, a figure aligned with the military. Senior General Min Aung Hlaing continues to serve as the commander-in-chief and acting president.

The Union Election Commission was reconstituted on the same day to oversee the electoral process. The military aims to complete the general elections by January 25, 2026, with the intention of creating a civilian government after four years of military rule. Yet, the credibility of these elections is already in jeopardy, particularly since the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has declined to send observers.

Significantly, the military has acknowledged that elections will not occur in 15% of constituencies. Many political parties have been dissolved or disqualified, leaving the military’s proxy, the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), as the only major player. The USDP was previously rejected in both the 2015 and 2020 elections, where the National League for Democracy (NLD) secured over 80% of the seats.

Impact of the Coup and Ongoing Civil Conflict

The planned elections are rooted in the 2021 coup that ousted the NLD government, led by Aung San Suu Kyi. The military’s actions were a response to the NLD’s rising popularity, which threatened to marginalize the military’s role in governance. Following the coup, widespread protests erupted, leading to a violent crackdown and the emergence of a multi-front civil war involving the military, newly formed People’s Defense Forces (PDFs), and various ethnic armed organizations.

The military’s inability to maintain control is evident, particularly in regions like Sagaing, Chin, Kachin, and Rakhine states, where heavy fighting continues. A notable incident highlighting the conflict’s humanitarian toll was an airstrike on a hospital in Mrauk-U, Rakhine State, on December 10, 2025, which resulted in the deaths of at least 33 civilians and injuries to approximately 70 others.

Approximately 34 million people are eligible to vote in these elections, according to the provisional census of 2024. However, many individuals may be unable to vote due to the ongoing conflict. The Election Commission recently published voter lists, which have faced skepticism from the public. In the 2020 elections, voter turnout exceeded 71%, even during the COVID-19 pandemic. In contrast, initial indications for the upcoming elections suggest a significant decline in voter interest, influenced by insecurity, intimidation, and calls for boycotts.

Exclusion of Political Parties and Legal Barriers

The competitive landscape of the 2025 elections is severely restricted due to legal and administrative challenges. Under the 2023 Political Party Registration Law, parties face stringent requirements that effectively exclude pro-democracy and dissident groups. The NLD was dissolved in 2023 when it refused to re-register under this law, leaving a significant gap in the political landscape.

As of now, only a handful of parties—including the military-backed USDP and a few minor groups—are allowed to participate in the elections. Reports suggest that as few as nine out of 61 registered parties will contest. The USDP, along with the National Unity Party (NUP) and other military-aligned factions, dominate the field. The only non-military party permitted is the People’s Party, led by activist Ko Ko Gyi, although its independence remains in question.

To further suppress dissent, the junta has enacted the Law on the Protection of Multiparty Democratic General Elections. This law criminalizes nearly all criticism of the electoral process, with severe penalties including imprisonment and, in cases of violence against election workers, the death penalty. Amnesty International has reported that, in the lead-up to the elections, at least 229 individuals have been charged under this law, including artists and social media users.

While the military has released over 3,000 political prisoners and dropped charges against several others in a pre-election amnesty, the status of high-profile detainees like Aung San Suu Kyi remains uncertain. Concerns have been raised by her family regarding her well-being, despite official claims that she is in good health.

International Reactions and Future Implications

International reactions to the upcoming elections are sharply divided. Western democracies, human rights organizations, and civil society groups have condemned the elections as a means for the military to legitimize its rule. In October 2025, over 300 civil society and labor unions urged ASEAN and other governments to reject the election process entirely. The United Nations Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) labeled the elections a “charade,” warning that conducting elections under current conditions could exacerbate divisions and deepen repression.

ASEAN has noted that “no substantial progress” has been made on its Five-Point Consensus, which calls for an end to violence and inclusive dialogue. The lack of observer participation from ASEAN further undermines the elections’ legitimacy. Conversely, China has emerged as a supporter of the military-run elections, arguing that negotiated truces with rebel groups have created conditions conducive to voting, aligning with its strategic interests in the region.

As Myanmar prepares for the elections, the process represents one of the most politically contested events in recent history. The combination of geographic exclusions, the dissolution of opposition parties, legal repression, and ongoing civil conflict raises serious questions about the democratic integrity of these elections. While they may signify a return to electoral politics, many experts believe they primarily serve to bolster the military’s grip on power, showcasing a carefully orchestrated political facade that fails to meet even minimal democratic standards.