Taiwan Faces Population Decline for 21st Consecutive Month

Taiwan’s population has seen a consistent decline for the past 21 months, according to data released by the Ministry of the Interior. As of the end of March 2024, the population stood at 23,317,031, reflecting a decrease of 87,107 individuals compared to the same time last year. This trend raises concerns among experts regarding the implications of an aging population and low birth rates.

The latest household registration data indicates that Taiwan had 9,837,386 registered households at the end of March, an increase of 458,367 households from the previous year. The average household size has contracted to 2.37 people, down by 0.13 compared to the same month last year. New Taipei City remains the most populous area, with 1,783,633 households, accounting for 18.13 percent of the total, followed by Kaohsiung and Taichung.

Birth and Mortality Rates Highlight Challenges

The nation’s birth rate continues to decline, with only 8,603 births recorded in March—equating to an average of one birth every 5.1 minutes. This figure represents a drop of 3,189 births compared to the same month last year, although it shows a slight increase of 139 from February 2024. The crude birth rate has reached 4.49 percent, with the highest rates found in Yunlin County at 6.65 percent, followed by Taitung and Pingtung.

In contrast, the total number of deaths reported for March was 15,387, averaging one death every 2.8 minutes, resulting in a crude mortality rate of 8.03 percent. This figure indicates an increase of 161 deaths compared to February, though it is 176 fewer than the same month last year. Taitung County recorded the highest mortality rate at 12.23 percent.

The disparity between birth and mortality rates has led to a continuous population decline, prompting concerns about the increasing proportion of elderly individuals. As of March, approximately 11.58 percent of the population was aged between 0 to 14, while those aged 65 and older accounted for 19.8 percent.

Implications for Society and Services

Experts are sounding alarms regarding the implications of an aging population combined with low marriage rates and rising divorce rates. The data indicates that only 5,844 couples married in March, resulting in a crude marriage rate of 3.05 percent, while 4,402 couples divorced, with a crude divorce rate of 2.3 percent. This situation has led to an increasing number of elderly individuals living alone, creating further societal challenges.

Huang Shu-wei, director at Colliers International Taiwan, emphasized that many developed nations are evolving into “super-aged” societies, characterized by over 20 percent of their populations being over 65 years old. He noted that Taiwan’s population structure is changing rapidly, necessitating improvements in long-term care, healthcare, and community services to meet the growing demands.

Additionally, Ho Shih-chang, lead researcher at H&B Realty, highlighted the vulnerability of the elderly population to scams, particularly as many own property. He advocates for enhanced educational campaigns aimed at protecting seniors from fraud, as well as providing a list of trusted home service providers to assist them.

The ongoing demographic trends pose significant challenges for Taiwan, impacting social systems and healthcare resources. Strategies must be developed to address these issues proactively, ensuring that the needs of an aging population are met while encouraging higher birth rates and family stability.