Japan’s Sanae Takaichi Poised for Leadership Amid Economic Challenges

Sanae Takaichi has made history as the first female leader of Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), positioning herself to potentially become the nation’s first female prime minister if she wins the parliamentary vote scheduled for October 14, 2023. Despite this landmark achievement, analysts caution that Takaichi faces significant hurdles, including repairing international relations and restoring domestic confidence.

The LDP selected Takaichi as its new president following a competitive race on Saturday. The 64-year-old conservative succeeds Shigeru Ishiba, who announced his resignation in September after the party encountered multiple electoral defeats. Observers highlight that Takaichi’s immediate focus will need to be on rebuilding the economy, navigating Japan’s diplomatic ties—particularly with the United States and China—and stabilizing her government.

The LDP currently governs in coalition with the smaller Komeito party. Although this alliance has lost its majority in both houses of parliament, it retains a significant number of seats. To be officially confirmed as prime minister, Takaichi will require a simple majority in the upcoming Diet session.

William Pesek, a journalist and columnist based in Tokyo, emphasized that while Takaichi is a seasoned politician, her reputation for being assertive could complicate her efforts to forge necessary alliances. He remarked, “She’s at a moment where she has to basically mend fences and win the support of opposition parties,” adding that many of these parties are advocating for tax cuts in exchange for their backing.

Political Stability and Structural Reforms

Japan has a longstanding reputation for its “revolving door” leadership, with numerous prime ministers serving brief terms. One of Takaichi’s primary challenges will be to remain in office beyond a year, according to Pesek. “She’ll have to work very, very hard to make sure that she’s around for longer than 12 months, and at that point, she probably will have the latitude to make some reforms in the economy,” he noted.

Seijiro Takeshita, a professor at the University of Shizuoka, pointed out that if Japan continues its cycle of frequent leadership changes, achieving meaningful structural reforms will become increasingly difficult. As Takaichi considers her Cabinet appointments, she will need to secure cross-party support for nearly every policy initiative, given the LDP’s diminished majority.

Takeshita noted that discussions with opposition MPs suggest a growing willingness to support substantive policies regardless of party affiliation. “From that point of view, maybe it’s not as bad as many people think,” he added, but emphasized that Takaichi must still negotiate coalition agreements for each policy.

The LDP’s influence has waned in recent elections, driven by public frustration over rising inflation and unpopular tax increases. Kotaro Tamura, an adjunct professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, stressed the need for Takaichi to regain seats in future elections. “For that, she needs to listen to the people suffering from tax hikes and higher prices,” he stated.

Gender Equality and Leadership Expectations

While Takaichi’s election as LDP leader is seen as a significant milestone for gender equality in Japan, her conservative views temper expectations. She has historically opposed legislation permitting women to retain their maiden names post-marriage and supports maintaining the male-only line of succession for the imperial family. Analysts express that while the glass ceiling has been cracked, her commitment to advancing gender equality remains uncertain.

Economic Revival and Abenomics

Takaichi, a protégé of the late former prime minister Shinzo Abe, has committed to reviving his “Abenomics” policies aimed at stimulating the economy through aggressive spending and lax monetary policy. Takeshita remarked that Japan requires a robust economic boost, noting that despite the nation’s substantial public debt—exceeding 260 percent of its gross domestic product—Takaichi is pursuing expansionary fiscal strategies.

Some economists argue that fostering growth is a more effective approach to managing public debt than implementing immediate spending cuts. “I think from that point of view, she’s making a very logical methodology by the books in order to revitalize Japan,” Takeshita concluded.

Diplomatic Challenges Ahead

Takaichi’s hardline stance on China raises questions regarding Japan’s future diplomatic relations. Analysts suggest she may adopt a cautious approach in the short term. Tamura observed, “She won’t provoke our neighbours unnecessarily … and will be in safe-driving mode,” although he noted that she may adopt a tougher stance as elections approach to garner support from conservative voters.

Pesek believes Takaichi’s reputation as a China hawk will influence her policy decisions. “I think one thing we’re seeing is the LDP is having something of an identity crisis,” he noted. Her past visits to the controversial Yasukuni Shrine, which honors Japan’s war dead, have already drawn criticism from China and South Korea, compounding the complexities of her diplomatic role.

With a visit from US President Donald Trump scheduled for later this month, Takaichi faces an immediate diplomatic test. “I think her most immediate challenge is Trump, Trump, Trump,” Pesek asserted, emphasizing the delicate balance she must maintain in managing Japan’s alliance with Washington while avoiding unnecessary conflict with Beijing.

The upcoming period will be critical for Takaichi as she navigates a challenging political landscape, seeks to consolidate her leadership, and addresses pressing economic and diplomatic issues.