Inpex Boosts Profit Forecast by 23% Driven by Ichthys LNG Success

Inpex Corporation, Japan’s largest oil and gas explorer, has raised its annual net profit forecast by a significant 23%. This adjustment is largely attributed to robust production at its key Ichthys liquefied natural gas (LNG) project in Australia, along with higher oil price expectations and a weaker yen. The company now anticipates a net profit of 370 billion yen (approximately $2.5 billion) for the fiscal year 2025, an increase from its previous estimate of 300 billion yen made in May.

The updated forecast surpasses analysts’ expectations, which averaged 324 billion yen according to a recent poll by LSEG. Daisuke Yamada, Inpex’s Senior Managing Executive Officer, emphasized during a news conference that steady production at the Ichthys project played a crucial role in this revision. He noted, “The revision reflected steady production at the Ichthys project,” highlighting the influence of rising oil prices and the depreciation of the yen.

Ichthys LNG Production and Financial Adjustments

Inpex is projecting that the Ichthys facility will ship 116 LNG cargoes this year, matching last year’s output, despite a planned maintenance period of one and a half months in the latter half of the year. The company’s revised assumption for Brent crude oil prices has increased to $69 per barrel from $65, while its yen-to-dollar expectation has shifted to 147 yen per U.S. dollar from 144 yen.

With this improved outlook, Inpex has also raised its annual dividend forecast to 100 yen per share, up from a previous estimate of 90 yen and last year’s actual dividend of 86 yen. Furthermore, the company announced a share buyback plan for up to 50 million shares, representing approximately 4.17 percent of its outstanding shares, with a maximum value of 80 billion yen. This buyback is scheduled to take place from August 12 to December 31.

Yamada stated that these measures are aimed at “strengthening the structural profit base along with improving resilience to low oil prices and yen appreciation,” which builds confidence in future earnings and enhances shareholder returns.

Future Plans and Investments

For the six months ending in June, Inpex reported a net profit increase of 5.1 percent, amounting to 223.53 billion yen. Looking ahead, the company is planning to make a final investment decision on the Abadi LNG project in Indonesia by 2027. This project is expected to reach peak production of 9.5 million metric tons per year. Yamada mentioned that Inpex aims to accumulate between 400 billion yen and 600 billion yen for development preparations from 2025 to 2027.

These strategic moves reflect Inpex’s commitment to adapting to market conditions while pursuing growth opportunities in the energy sector.