Trump Pressures Allies to Buy US Gas, Ignoring Economic Realities

The United States is exerting pressure on its allies in Asia and Europe to increase purchases of its fossil fuels, particularly liquefied natural gas (LNG), as part of a broader geopolitical strategy. The European Union plans to import up to US$750 billion worth of US energy by 2028, which would represent a significant increase compared to current levels. Although deals have been established, analysts express skepticism about whether these ambitious targets will be met.

Indonesia has already committed to US$24 billion in energy imports from the United States, while Japan is also exploring similar agreements. These transactions are not typical free trade arrangements; they reflect the Trump administration’s strategy to leverage trade and security commitments to secure long-term contracts for fossil fuels. The intent behind this shift is to bolster US energy dominance and counter China’s growing influence in the clean technology sector.

Shifting Energy Dynamics

Historically, the US has been reliant on energy imports, particularly as domestic oil production declined. However, the fracking revolution transformed this landscape. By 2019, the US transitioned from being a net importer to a net exporter of oil, and by 2023, it became the leading exporter of LNG, surpassing Qatar and Australia. The push for allies to buy US fossil fuels is driven by the “America First” agenda, which has three primary objectives.

First, the Trump administration aims to secure the future of US fossil fuel businesses. Currently, the US accounts for 22% of global oil production and 25% of natural gas production. However, projections indicate a decline in fossil fuel demand by 2030. The administration seeks to establish a “subscription model” for fossil fuels, ensuring stability in a market facing long-term challenges.

Second, maintaining control over global energy flows has been a cornerstone of US foreign policy. By tying allies to US gas supplies, the US can retain leverage in international relations, especially as decentralized renewables threaten its traditional dominance.

Lastly, there is a concerted effort to counteract China’s influence in the renewable energy sector. China currently dominates over 70% of global solar, wind, and battery manufacturing. The Trump administration’s approach has shifted from promoting clean technology to defending fossil fuels, which includes pressuring allies to delay their transition to greener energy sources.

Potential Consequences for Allies

The implications of these fossil fuel agreements could be significant for US allies. The reliance on LNG can hinder competitiveness, especially since solar and wind energy have been the most cost-effective sources of electricity for nearly a decade. With the rapid decline in costs for grid-scale batteries, renewable energy solutions are set to become even more attractive.

Moreover, dependence on external fossil fuel suppliers may compromise national security. Countries like Nepal are already making strides toward electric vehicles to reduce their reliance on volatile fuel imports. The critical issue remains climate change; infrastructure investments in fossil fuels now would lock in emissions for decades, contradicting global efforts to limit temperature increases to under 2°C.

Australia illustrates this contradiction well. As a competing LNG exporter, it stands to suffer the consequences of climate change more than most. Climate-related disaster costs are projected to rise from US$4.5 billion to US$41 billion annually by 2050, paralleling the value of current gas exports. Aligning with the US fossil fuel strategy may favor short-term gains for a few while undermining broader national interests.

Despite these pressures, there are alternative pathways for countries in Asia and Australia. Investing in renewable energy technologies can lead to cheaper power, enhanced energy independence, and greater long-term economic stability. Nations such as Australia and Indonesia possess valuable lithium and nickel resources, while countries like China and South Korea have the industrial capacity to support a regional supply chain for batteries and renewables.

The current US administration’s goals to protect fossil fuel profits and slow down the clean energy transition do not reflect the aspirations of its international partners. A proactive shift towards renewable energy would not only provide economic advantages but also place countries at the forefront of the impending industrial transformation.

As highlighted by Christoph Nedopil, director of the Griffith Asia Institute, the real challenge lies in rejecting the fossil fuel trap and investing in sustainable solutions for the future.