UOB Asset Management Projects Market Shifts in Q4 2025

UOB Asset Management (UOBAM) has released its quarterly investment strategy for the fourth quarter of 2025, indicating that global markets may face significant challenges as tariffs begin to impact the US economy. The report highlights that while markets have shown stability, the upcoming months will depend on consumer reactions to rising prices.

According to UOBAM, the probability of continued growth has increased to 50%, up from 40% last quarter. Conversely, the firm estimates a 25% chance of recession and a 25% chance of stagflation. This mixed outlook has prompted UOBAM to adopt a neutral positioning between equities and fixed income investments.

Strategic Neutrality Amid Market Uncertainty

Anthony Raza, Head of UOBAM Multi-Asset Strategy, emphasized that this neutrality reflects a strategic approach rather than indecision. He noted, “Given the equal probabilities of market-positive vs market-negative scenarios, we believe a neutral and diversified approach is the most resilient and offers the best chance of achieving positive returns across a range of outcomes.”

Within the equities sector, UOBAM identifies Asia as a promising area, buoyed by stronger currencies, appealing valuations, and increasing domestic demand. Europe is also showing signs of recovery after two years of subdued growth. In contrast, the outlook for the US remains cautious, as the impact of rising tariff costs is beginning to permeate the broader economy.

Fixed Income Projections and Economic Resilience

In the fixed income space, UOBAM analysts believe that developed market economies will continue to show resilience, although inflation risks are becoming more pronounced. The firm maintains a neutral stance on bond duration and credit, predicting that 10-year bond yields will fluctuate between 4.0% and 4.5%.

UOBAM’s insights are part of a broader analysis of global investment trends, with their comprehensive Q4 2025 Investment Strategy available on their website. The firm has established itself as a leading player in asset management since its inception in 1986, managing approximately S$38.8 billion in client assets as of August 31, 2025.

Headquartered in Singapore, UOBAM has a significant presence across Asia, with operations in countries such as Brunei, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam. The firm has consistently received accolades for its performance and innovation in asset management, underscoring its commitment to sustainable investing and digital advancement.

For more detailed insights regarding equities, fixed income, currencies, and commodities, readers can access the full report through UOBAM’s official channels.