China’s Pressure on US Policy Towards Taiwan Faces Resistance

China’s attempts to influence US policy regarding Taiwan are unlikely to succeed, according to a Taiwanese national security official. This statement comes in response to a Wall Street Journal article suggesting that Chinese President Xi Jinping intends to leverage upcoming interactions with US President Donald Trump to pressure Washington into opposing Taiwanese independence.

Political Dynamics in US-China Relations

The Taiwanese official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, emphasized that efforts to exploit political transitions in the US to create a “strategic gap” disregard the established US policy on Taiwan. They noted that Beijing has historically sought to undermine trust and cooperation between Taiwan, the US, and allied nations. “Beijing once believed it could drive a wedge between Washington and Europe during tariff negotiations, weakening Europe’s stance on Russia,” the official said. “Instead, European nations became more alert to the complex threats posed by China.”

According to the official, a stable and developing Taiwan is crucial for regional stability in the Indo-Pacific, a core strategic interest for the US. While Washington aims to reduce tensions with Beijing, it simultaneously enhances its military presence in the region, as evidenced by larger-scale multinational military exercises.

The Wall Street Journal article cited an unnamed source indicating that Xi is attempting to take advantage of Trump’s eagerness to secure an economic agreement with China. This includes pressuring Trump to issue a formal statement opposing Taiwanese independence. The article highlights that bringing Taiwan under Chinese control has long been central to Xi’s vision for China, known as the “China Dream.” This ambition faced setbacks during the administration of former US President Joe Biden, which reaffirmed the US stance of not supporting Taiwanese independence.

Implications of a Policy Shift

For Beijing, the distinction between “does not support” and “opposes” Taiwanese independence is significant. The former suggests neutrality, whereas the latter would imply US alignment with Beijing against Taiwan’s sovereignty. Such a shift could represent the most substantial change in US policy towards Taiwan since the inception of strategic ambiguity.

The article also mentioned the recent warming of relations between the US and China, highlighted by high-level exchanges and a deal involving TikTok. Former senior Asia adviser Evan Medeiros, now a professor at Georgetown University, stated that weakening ties between Washington and Taipei is vital to Beijing’s ambitions concerning Taiwan. This strategy would diminish Taiwan’s confidence and enhance Beijing’s leverage.

While the Trump administration officially opposes any unilateral changes to the status quo in the Taiwan Strait, recent developments have raised concerns in both Washington and Taipei. Notably, the US administration has delayed portions of planned military aid to Taiwan and denied President William Lai a transit stop in the US during his recent Latin America trip, leading to the cancellation of his visit.

Yun Sun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center in Washington, remarked that any shift in US policy regarding Taiwan would not happen overnight. “Beijing will persistently and repeatedly press its position, gradually eroding Taiwan’s confidence in US commitments,” she said.

As interactions between Trump and Xi approach, the geopolitical stakes for Taiwan and its relationships with the US and China continue to grow, highlighting the complex and evolving nature of international relations in the region.