Xi Jinping Likely to Miss ASEAN Leaders’ Summit in October

Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to skip the upcoming summit of Asian leaders scheduled for October 26-28, 2023, in Kuala Lumpur, according to sources familiar with the situation. This development diminishes hopes for a significant meeting between Xi and U.S. President Donald Trump during the event. Earlier this month, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim had indicated that both leaders were anticipated to attend the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit, leading to speculation about a possible in-person encounter between the two leaders amidst an ongoing trade truce.

Regional sources, requesting anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the matter, confirmed that Chinese Premier Li Qiang would represent China at the summit instead of Xi. Anwar’s office, which currently chairs the ten-member bloc, referred inquiries to Malaysia’s foreign ministry, which did not respond immediately to requests for comments regarding Xi’s attendance. Similarly, China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has not yet commented on the situation.

Anwar revealed to the Malaysian parliament that Trump had confirmed his attendance during a recent phone conversation. Trump also stated earlier this month that he would meet Xi before the end of the year if a trade agreement is reached, expressing optimism by saying, “we’re getting very close to a deal.” There have been discussions among aides for both presidents about a potential meeting in Asia around the time of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit, set to take place in South Korea from October 30 to November 1.

The ASEAN summit will be Trump’s first visit to Southeast Asia since his meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in Hanoi in 2019. He is also expected to attend the APEC summit later that week. It is worth noting that Chinese presidents rarely attend ASEAN summits; since taking office in 2012, Xi has only participated virtually in a special summit in 2021. U.S. presidents have similarly infrequent attendance, with Trump present in 2017 and President Joe Biden attending virtually in 2021 before participating in person in Cambodia the following year.

Anwar emphasized that this year’s summit aims to be “ASEAN’s largest and most high-profile gathering of world leaders to date,” with notable attendees including Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and South African President Cyril Ramaphosa.

In recent developments, Washington and Beijing have extended their tariff truce for another 90 days, preventing the implementation of significant tariffs on each other’s goods while negotiations continue over critical issues such as trade imbalances and market access. Trump’s global tariffs have significantly impacted Southeast Asia, a region that relies heavily on exports and manufacturing. Earlier this month, the White House announced tariffs of approximately 19 percent across major Southeast Asian economies’ exports, a reduction from previously threatened rates, following warnings against the transshipment of Chinese goods to the United States.