Modi Warns of Demographic Shifts Threatening India’s Security

Prime Minister Narendra Modi highlighted serious concerns regarding demographic changes affecting India during his Independence Day speech on August 15, 2023. He stated that such changes, particularly in border areas, pose significant risks to national security. Modi identified these developments as part of a deliberate conspiracy aimed at altering the country’s demographic landscape, suggesting that the seeds of a new crisis are being sown.

The Prime Minister’s comments come amid ongoing efforts in Bangladesh, allegedly supported by the ISI (Inter-Services Intelligence), to increase illegal infiltrations into India. Historical context reveals that this situation can be traced back to the aftermath of the 1971 War, which led to the creation of Bangladesh. Following this conflict, Pakistan’s military intelligence recognized that direct military engagement with India was no longer viable. Instead, the ISI and the Directorate General of Forces Intelligence (DGFI) initiated a long-term plan to destabilize India through demographic manipulation.

The initial phases of this strategy, which began slowly, gained momentum in the early 1980s. By the 1990s, the influx of illegal migrants significantly altered demographics in critical regions, including West Bengal and various northeastern states. Areas with a predominantly Hindu population were targeted, leading to increasingly strained communal relations as Hindus became minorities in certain districts.

In the early 1990s, the Research and Analysis Wing (R&AW) undertook operations aimed at thwarting the Jamaat-e-Islami’s activities in Bangladesh. This initiative focused on preventing an influx of migrants that could facilitate the establishment of a “Greater East Pakistan,” encompassing regions of West Bengal and the northeastern states. The agency’s findings during this period revealed a systematic infiltration strategy intended to undermine India’s internal security.

Murshidabad, Uttar Dinajpur, Malda, and North and South 24 Paraganas in West Bengal have been identified as some of the most affected districts by these demographic shifts. Similarly, Assam has witnessed notable changes, particularly in districts such as Dhubri, Barpeta, Goalpara, and Morigaon. Observations from former R&AW officer Amar Bhushan emphasize the urgency of addressing these issues, indicating a troubling increase in illegal immigration from Bangladesh—estimated at around 160 percent between 1971 and 1996.

As the political landscape in Bangladesh appears to favour the ISI, Indian intelligence agencies anticipate an escalation in infiltration efforts, including the establishment of terrorist camps. The ramifications of these demographic changes extend beyond the eastern states, affecting regions such as Karnataka, Kerala, and Uttarakhand.

Indian agencies stress the importance of viewing this situation as a significant security threat rather than merely a humanitarian crisis. The long-term implications of these demographic shifts could lead to job losses for locals, increased communal tensions, and a heightened risk of terrorism emanating from infiltrators linked to extremist groups.

In summary, the ongoing demographic changes, rooted in historical conflicts and contemporary political dynamics, present complex challenges for India’s national security. As outlined by Prime Minister Modi and intelligence experts, addressing these issues requires a comprehensive strategy to safeguard the nation’s integrity and social harmony.