US Operation Alters Strategic Landscape in Western Hemisphere

The recent success of the United States’ Operation Absolute Resolve has marked a significant shift in strategic policy within the Western Hemisphere. This early January operation saw the extraction of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife without any American casualties. The Biden administration has characterized this mission as an embodiment of a newly articulated doctrine known as “Doctrinal Realism,” a concept that builds on the foundations laid by the Trump administration’s Trump Corollary.

This shift in U.S. strategic thinking reinterprets the historic Monroe Doctrine for a contemporary context dominated by great-power rivalry. The government now perceives the activities of China and Russia in Latin America as direct threats to national security. The focus has moved away from promoting democratic governance towards prioritizing strategic competition. This includes a concerted effort to counter initiatives such as the Belt and Road projects and to limit the expansion of Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei in the region.

Repercussions in Global Capitals

The successful execution of Operation Absolute Resolve has sent ripples throughout major global capitals, notably in Beijing, Tehran, Pyongyang, and Washington. Sources within the U.S. intelligence community suggest that this new approach underlines a rule-based realism that champions power dynamics and transactional alliances over conventional democratic ideals. As a result, many governments are now navigating a hybrid diplomatic landscape, balancing democratic rhetoric with realist strategies when their core interests are challenged.

China’s response to the operation illustrates a calculated, stability-focused strategy rather than a firm ideological allegiance to Maduro’s regime. Anticipating potential U.S. military action, Beijing had been preparing for a possible intervention, demonstrated by a high-level diplomatic visit to Caracas led by senior diplomat Qiu Xiaoqi shortly before the U.S. operation. Intelligence reports indicated that both China and Russia were unlikely to retaliate, reflecting a long-standing approach in the Western Hemisphere that emphasizes asset protection and stability over direct confrontation with the United States.

Venezuela represents not just a geopolitical interest for China but an economic venture. With significant investments in energy and mining, China’s priority lies in safeguarding its contracts and ensuring the repayment of loans, which often come in the form of oil shipments. Currently, Venezuelan oil constitutes about 4% of China’s total energy imports, allowing Beijing to maintain a more flexible posture regarding Maduro’s governance.

Strategic Recommendations for U.S. Policymakers

The implications of Operation Absolute Resolve extend beyond immediate tactical success. For the U.S. to transform this event into a sustainable strategic advantage, it is essential to implement a coherent framework rooted in Doctrinal Realism. Policymakers should first integrate the National Security Strategy (NSS) with clear criteria for identifying foreign military involvement or infrastructure projects that pose strategic threats.

Additionally, the U.S. should emphasize hemispheric stability and sovereignty through public messaging that aligns with the principles of the Trump Corollary. As the political landscape in Venezuela shifts post-Maduro, there exists an opportunity to forge a transitional arrangement that encourages cooperation among various domestic factions, including pragmatic Chavistas and military leaders. This approach may pave the way for a more stable governance model without the perception of external occupation.

Addressing China’s economic position in Venezuela will also be critical. The U.S. must evaluate its commercial relationship with Beijing and consider leveraging the new strategic leverage obtained from recent operations. A renewed dialogue with Chinese authorities could facilitate discussions on debt, energy, and infrastructure, ensuring that American interests are safeguarded while also accommodating China’s investments.

Overall, the successful navigation of this complex geopolitical landscape, characterized by both cooperation and competition, will be vital in maintaining U.S. influence in the Western Hemisphere while ensuring the protection of its interests. As the U.S. develops its strategy in response to the evolving dynamics, the principles of Doctrinal Realism could play a pivotal role in stabilizing relations and securing a favorable outcome for all parties involved.