US Think Tank Warns of China’s Military Drills Targeting Taiwan

China’s recent military exercises near Taiwan have raised significant concerns regarding the potential for a blockade of the island nation. A report from the Institute for the Study of War revealed that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) conducted operations from March 4 to March 5, 2024, in five maritime zones around Taiwan. The drills were described as a direct warning to those advocating for Taiwanese independence.

The exercises, dubbed “Justice Mission 2025,” simulated scenarios aimed at cutting off Taiwan from essential energy supplies and foreign military aid. According to the report, the drills effectively demonstrated the PLA’s ability to block shipping routes leading to major Taiwanese ports, including Kaohsiung, Keelung, and Hualien. Taiwan is particularly vulnerable due to its heavy reliance on imported energy, with approximately 96 percent of its energy needs met through imports in 2024, as reported by the Energy Administration.

Military Coordination and Strategy

The exercises featured the collaboration of the China Coast Guard and PLA Navy, illustrating Beijing’s strategy of integrating civilian enforcement with military capabilities during a blockade. This approach has already been observed in the South China Sea, where coast guard vessels confront foreign ships while naval forces secure the area.

In the event of a blockade, the report indicated that the China Coast Guard would likely intercept both commercial and government vessels from Taiwan, while the PLA Navy would work to deter any foreign military intervention. The deployment of precision-strike and anti-submarine weapons during the drills suggests that the PLA is preparing to counter US submarines and surface ships that might attempt to breach a blockade.

The Institute for the Study of War highlighted that the exercises disregarded established maritime boundaries, with eight Chinese coast guard vessels entering the contiguous zone around Taiwan. Some ships ventured as close as 1.6 nautical miles (3km) from the Wuchiu Islands and 1.3 nautical miles (2.4km) from the Matsu Islands, infringing upon Taiwanese territorial waters.

Implications for Taiwan and the United States

As the Chinese Communist Party continues to implement its “slicing” strategy, the report urged Taiwan and the United States not to be intimidated by these military drills. It recommended that military planners in both regions analyze the blockade exercises to gain a comprehensive understanding of the PLA’s potential plans for an attack on Taiwan.

If China successfully deters US political and military support for Taiwan through such maneuvers, it could embolden Beijing to escalate its aggressive actions further. The report emphasizes the importance of vigilance and preparedness in the face of these developments, as the geopolitical landscape surrounding Taiwan remains increasingly complex and precarious.