Japan’s Missile Sale to Boost Philippines’ Defense Strategy

The Philippines may soon enhance its military capabilities through a potential missile deal with Japan, marking a significant shift in its defense posture. Reports indicate that informal discussions are underway for the sale of the Type 03 Medium-Range Surface-to-Air Missile (Chu-SAM). This missile system, designed to intercept both aircraft and cruise missiles, comes at a time of heightened tensions with China in the South China Sea.

This development could lead to the most profound military integration between the Philippines and the United States since the Cold War. The Philippines expressed interest in the Type 03 as it confronts escalating confrontations with China. A feasibility study regarding this sale is expected to commence once Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi‘s government revises existing regulations that presently limit defense exports to five non-combat categories. This change only requires a decision from the National Security Council, bypassing the need for parliamentary approval.

The Philippines recently granted the US access to nine military sites under the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA). This strategic positioning, alongside the potential deployment of the US’s Typhon missile system, could make the Philippines a target in the event of US-China conflicts, particularly over Taiwan. Consequently, developing effective missile defense capabilities has become imperative. Currently, the Philippines relies on a limited defense arsenal, including approximately three Israeli-made medium-range SPYDER batteries, and faces challenges in defending critical infrastructure and population centers.

Acquiring additional missile defense systems from Japan could significantly enhance the Philippines’ capability to synchronize with US military strategies. This would not only help protect US facilities and Typhon launch sites within the Philippines, but also position the country as a key player in the defense of Guam. The integration of US and Philippine missile defense systems could form a robust shield for US military assets stationed in the region.

China’s ongoing military expansion in the South China Sea, including the establishment of militarized islands and submarine bases, raises concerns about regional security. The People’s Liberation Army is reportedly developing its capabilities, including the JL-2 submarine-launched ballistic missile, which could easily reach Guam. Although the US has fortified Guam with advanced defense systems such as Aegis Ashore and Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD), the Philippines’ inclusion in this defensive framework is essential for early warning and interception capabilities.

Despite these advancements, doubts remain about the effectiveness of missile defense systems. The latest Department of Defense report highlights the challenges posed by the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force, which possesses around 1,300 medium-range ballistic missiles capable of targeting the Philippines. The disparity between the number of Chinese missiles and the limited interceptor stocks available to the US and the Philippines raises significant concerns.

A report by the American Physical Society emphasizes the difficulties of intercepting intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), outlining that no US missile defense system has reliably proven effective against ICBMs under realistic conditions. Emerging countermeasures, such as hypersonic glide vehicles and maneuvering reentry vehicles, further complicate defense efforts. The JL-2 missile, deployed on China’s Type 094 submarines, could potentially evade existing US missile defenses, particularly given its ability to carry multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles.

The geopolitical landscape is further complicated by the current administration of Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.. Facing political challenges, including concerns over historical issues and economic performance, the Marcos administration may lean heavily on its partnership with the US for security credentials. This reliance could serve to galvanize public sentiment against China, particularly amidst ongoing territorial disputes in the South China Sea.

In practice, this may lead to increased visibility of US-led naval exercises and military deployments in the Philippines, which could include missile defense infrastructure in the future. Should the Philippines proceed with the acquisition of Japanese missile defenses, it would solidify its integration with US military forces on its territory and enhance Guam’s defense capabilities. However, this integration may also curtail the Philippines’ strategic autonomy, complicating its ability to navigate the geopolitical tensions between the US and China.

As the situation evolves, the implications of this potential missile deal extend beyond mere military capabilities, influencing the Philippines’ role in regional security dynamics and its diplomatic relationships with major powers.